Equities dropped almost 1% yesterday, and took out some recent lows. Today, futures are up, but only barely — It’s a small candle with small wicks. That said, the reports are saying things are starting to rise in hopes of a new stimulus package (and one falling through was the main reason for the drop yesterday), so I’m going to go into today mildly risk-on, but I’ll take the baskets at face value.
USD – L – If equities make another strong push down, I’ll consider this to the upside, but since I’m leaning risk-on, I’m not expecting that to happen. This is up a bit on the day, but looks like it’s in a basing pattern. I’ll keep my eye on this in case equities do fall, but otherwise, I’ll leave it alone — Keep an eye on this if equities drop — LONG
CAD – L/N – I mean, I can’t not take a look at this. It’s up quite a bit on the day and has pushed out of the range it’s been in. It has pulled back this morning, and is sitting right at that resistance level, so that could be the tradable opportunity I’m looking for
EUR – N – This is up a ton today and has broken out of one range and is stalled at a higher level of resistance. On the hourly chart, this looks very extended, so this looks like a move I simply missed. I’ll hold off for today, and maybe revisit later this afternoon to see what it looks like for tomorrow
Today’s Pair
CAD/JPY – Long
This is coming off of a bear rally on the daily chart, and is forming a pretty decent base on the hourly chart. I’ll run the numbers here and quite possibly set an entry order
GBP – N – This is still basing and is already sitting pretty far off of the day’s highs. I’m going to continue to hold off here
JPY – S/N – This is down a bit for the second day in a row, but has failed to get as low as yesterday so far. If this is a risk-on day, this should continue to push down and take out yesterday’s lows and then some. I’ll take a look at this to the short side
AUD – S – This is down a ton already on the day, and is down for the 7th day in a row. It’s sitting on another level of support, but the hourly chart doesn’t look too extended, so I’ll take a look at individual charts to see if there’s enough momentum still there. Actually, scratch that, if equities drop, I’ll look to take this short, but I’m not going to try to short this on a risk-on day, if it ends up being one — Keep an eye on this if equities drop — SHORT
NZD – S – This pushed down quite a bit today already, too, and is sitting on some support. This didn’t really take out a strong support level like AUD did, and is now sitting on that “stronger” level. There appears to be real weakness behind this, but this could definitely be a temporary low if equities rise. I’ll keep an eye on it for that instance, but I’ll hold off on checking charts for now — Keep an eye on this if equities drop — SHORT
CHF – L – This is a tough one, like AUD. It’s made a huge up-move, and took out a couple of pretty major resistance levels, but on the hourly chart this looks way over-extended and if we are in a risk-on day, this should drop. I’ll keep an eye on it like I’m doing USD (and AUD and NZD), but it’s not a primary currency right now — Keep an eye on this if equities drop — LONG