Equities spiked yesterday, but started to roll over by the end of the day. Futures are down a bit, but not much. I think I’m largely going to take the baskets at face value today, and maybe revisit them once the markets open to see if anything’s changed.
USD – L – This is pushing up a bit today, but not much. It’s did break above yesterday’s highs, but is right up against a pretty strong resistance level. If equities drop, this might push higher but we’ll have to see if that happens
CAD – L/N – This pushed higher today, and got right to the tip-top of the range it’s been in since mid-August (and broke above the small base it’s been in for the last few days). If this can push back up through the day’s highs, this could run pretty far. I’ll take a look at this to the long side
EUR – N – This pushed down yesterday, but ended up rallying and closing near it’s open. Today, it pushed down again (below yesterday’s lows) but again is sitting near it’s open. The MA’s are moving sideways and this is in a range, so I’m going to leave this alone for today
GBP – N – This is mostly basing, but somewhat pushing up withing the base (bull flag? Ascending triangle?). If this can push up above the high from late September, this could push up quite a bit, but it’s down on the day, and I don’t see much short opportunity, so I’m going to leave this alone
Today’s Pairs
AUD/CAD – Short
This is pushing down, and is right near support, but my ideal entry point is still 22+ pips below the current price. There’s a pretty clear low base on the hourly chart, but that would only give me a 1 R:R. I suppose I could use the next support level as my take-profit and potentially take 1/2 position size. I’ll entertain that idea if I don’t like the JPY cross
AUD/JPY – Short
This is frustrating because this looks playable. There’s a nice bear rally on the hourly chart, and a good amount of room between the low before the rally and the next support level. Unfortunately, though, the rally pushed up higher than I would’ve liked, and now the R:R at that level doesn’t make sense. There is another pretty strong resistance level closer to my entry point that could act as my stop level, so maybe that’s what I’ll do. I’ll run the numbers on both to see how I feel.
JPY – L/N – This pushed up and made a new high over the last couple of days, but has pulled back and is sitting near the low’s of the day (which were yesterday’s highs). If this were to remain weak, I don’t think it’ll push much further down, but if it regains some strength and pushes out of the day’s highs, I could see this running a bit. I’ll take a look at this to the upside, but I won’t chase
AUD – S/N – This is down again for the second day in a row, but it has rallied a bit on the day already. It stalled out at a relatively minor support level, so if it can push back through the day’s lows, I could see some opportunity there. I think it’ll only stop at the next support level, but that might be far enough to offer a decent R:R
NZD – N – This is up on the day, but stalled at some resistance and pulled back. It now looks like it’s just in a base. I’ll leave this alone for now and see how it behaves later/tomorrow
CHF – N – This is still ranging/basing. This has pushed up and down on the day a decent amount, but is sitting at the open. The highs failed to break above the resistance area, and the lows stalled at support. There appears to be a ton of indecision around this right now, so I’ll hold off