Equities gapped up yesterday, making an all time new high a decent amount above the previous all-time high level pre-COVID. That said, when I glanced at the baskets yesterday, nothing moved that much, and I certainly didn’t see the risk-on moves I’d expect with such a large gap up and new all-time highs in the S&P (Also, now that I say that, the world markets haven’t quite reached those all-time highs, so maybe that’s a factor?). Because of this, I’m going to take the baskets at face value.
USD – N – This has basically been basing for the last 4 days, right around the 20 MA and after bouncing off of some (pretty strong) support. It is down today, but only slightly, and while it’s not quite at the lows of the base, it’s pretty close. I don’t love this, so I’ll hold off
CAD – L – I’m cautiously bullish here today. This started pushing up at the beginning of the month and continually has made higher highs and higher lows, with some pullbacks in between. We saw this push up at the end of last wee with a pullback yesterday, and price is up today, near last week’s highs. I think this could push up again soon, so I’ll look for some opportunity here
EUR – N – This is up slightly today, but it has a pretty long upper shadow and is sitting closer to it’s open. I don’t really love this to either side right now, so I’ll hold off
GBP – N – Last week, this pushed up out of it’s range, and looked strong, but the next day, it pulled back and took back everything it had gained, since then, it’s been back in that range that it was in before that spike. Today, it’s up and near the top of the range, but is still a decent way’s below it. I’ll keep my eye on this throughout the day to see how it behaves, but I don’t think I want to trade it right now
JPY – S – This pushed down a lot already today and is now sitting on support that held up back in February, a bit in early June and some in mid July. If this can push through this support level, there’s a good amount of room before the next one, but not so much that it seems unrealistic to reach. I’ll take a look at this to the short side on individual charts
AUD – N – This is still fully within that base, which gives me extra pause because it didn’t spike with equities. I’ll hold off here until it gets some conviction behind it
NZD – N – This has been quite bearish over the last month, roughly, but has stalled out. Despite the fact that equities have been rising over the same time period this has been steadily pushing down and has stalled out at some support that was resistance back in early March and late May. It looks like it’s basing here for a bit, and once it breaks, it could break in either direction, so I’m gong to hold off here
CHF – N – This tried to break out last week, but basically paused once it just got outside of the range for 2 days and then dropped back to within the range. It’s risen some since then, but still within that area and for the last 3 days, it’s been in an even tighter range. I don’t love this right now, so I’ll hold off