I think I’m going to try a slightly different approach this morning. Equities rallied after their big drop at the open yesterday morning, and futures so far are up about 1.3%. They got up to the highs that they reach back in June when the rally topped out, and has stalled at that level so far. I’m going to go into today with the sentiment that equities are going to gap higher and then spend most of the day dropping, so I’m risk-off.
USD – N – This is down so far today ad equity futures have continued to rise. It’s down enough that I’m not sure I even want to look at this long if equities do drop when they open. I’ll keep my eye on this — and maybe revisit if I start to see them rise, but I’m going to hold off for right now — If equities remain strong, look to short this
CAD – S/N – This has pushed to yet another low, but has pulled back and is sitting on that support level. If this can push back down to and through today’s lows, this should be a good short option. It’s recent history is giving me a bit of pause, but I’m willing to take a look at individual charts
EUR – S/N – This doesn’t really follow equities all that much, so I think I’m short here regardless of sentiment. This rallied over the last 2 days, but got right up to the top of the long-term range it’s been in (since mid-April), and stalled out there. It’s down a bit today, and if this can push through today’s lows again, this could be a good short to the middle/bottom of this range
GBP – L/N – This failed at the 20 MA on the pullback yesterday, and is up a decent amount today, which lends some credence to my bull pullback thought I had yesterday. Either way, right now, price is back stalled at/just below a pretty major resistance level, and if it can push up again, there might be enough there to simply take this long up to yesterday’s highs. I’ll take a look at individual charts
JPY – L/N – I don’t want to not look at this if we do in fact get a risk-off day. Especially since this is up a little bit already. This broke one resistance level, but it wasn’t very strong, but the next resistance level might be far enough away to offer a good R:R (depending on the pair). I’ll take a look at individual charts here
AUD – N – Oh wow, this finally pushed through the range it’s been in since mid-June — but it didn’t quite make it to the highs that were made in late May/early June. Similar to USD, this is up enough that even if equities do drop, I don’t want to touch this, so I’ll hold off, or take a look if equities remain strong — If equities remain strong, take this long
Today’s Pairs
GBP/CAD – Long
EUR/GBP – Short
EUR/JPY – Short
CAD/JPY – Short
AUD/USD – Long
NZD/USD – Long
AUD/CHF – Long
NZD/CHF – Long
GBP/USD – Long
GBP/CHF – Long
EUR/AUD – Short
EUR/NZD – Short
AUD/CAD – Long
NZD/CAD – Long
NZD – N – This is a tough one. On it’s pullback yesterday, it failed at the 20MA and today it’s pushed up back above the downward trend-line. I’ll keep my eye on this, in case it starts dramatically dropping, but I do think this is up enough that I don’t really see that happening. If equities remain strong, though, I’ll take a look at this — If equities remain strong, take this long
CHF – N – This dropped a ton yesterday on equity strength, taking out a couple of resistance areas. I’ll look at this if equities remain strong, but otherwise, this is down too much for me to want to touch on a risk-off day — If equities remain strong, take this short