Equities made a pretty large drop by the end of the day yesterday, and took risk currencies with it. Stopped out my NZD/JPY trade (maybe I should’ve cut my losses when I was talking to it out… hindsight = 20/20). Futures are down almost .6% today, and looks to be forming a bit of a double-top that it’s falling from.
I think I’m comfortable going into today with a risk-off sentiment — and I don’t think I want to even entertain the idea of trading risk-on.
USD – N – This pushed up higher today, but has since pulled back and is sitting below yesterday’s high. It also didn’t even get as high as the high from 2 days ago. I’d expect this to push higher as equities drop, but it doesn’t seem to be happening right now. Even if it does start to push higher, at this point, it’s too far away from it’s highs/a resistance level/entry point for me to want to take a look. I’ll keep my eye on it though in case it pushes up again
CAD – S/N – I looked to short this around news this morning, but it didn’t really move. That said, at some point today, price pushed fully through the bulk of the support level it was being held up on, and is still sitting closer to the bottom of that range. There is another support level from back in March, that it might have trouble breaking, but I’ll see what this looks like on individual charts
Today’s Pairs
GBP/CAD – Long
CAD/JPY – Short
GBP/AUD – Long
AUD/JPY – Short
EUR – N – Still in it’s base
GBP – L/N – This pushed up through some resistance yesterday, but pulled back — maybe giving up 1/2 it’s gains. Today, it’s up, but sitting near the open and fully within yesterday’s candle. If this can push out of yesterday’s highs, this could be a good long play. I’ll see what the charts say
JPY – L/N – This is up a good amount today, and pushed through a couple of minor resistance levels. It’s coming up on another one, and seems to be getting a little stuck there. In the basket, this is stalling out at the 20MA, so maybe I don’t want to take this long, but I’ll still look at individual charts, as this is the strongest currency so far this morning
AUD – S/N – This is tough. This has already given back some of the down-moves it’s made since I last looked at this like 10 minutes ago. That said, it did make a new low this morning and push through some support. There’s another level of support not too far away, but (similar to JPY) this is the weakest currency so far today, so I want to make sure to at least take a look at it
NZD – N – I’m bullish NZD, but equities say this should drop — and that’s being reflected in the chart. It looks like price is starting to base right above that trend-line, and today, while price is up, it is so only slightly and fully within yesterday’s candle. There’s a lot of indecision here, so I’m going to leave this alone
CHF – N – This is the second weakest currency today, but on a risk-off day, I don’t want to short CHF. I know that’s what the chart is showing, but I don’t think that’s a risk I’m willing to take