Equities closed higher yesterday, for the most part (the DOW closed slightly lower), and futures are looking strong currently. A major contributor to that, though, is the employment report that released this morning — numbers were better than expected.
Will this information cause equities to spike and put a lot of faith in the market? Or, did the spike already happen in futures, and there’ll be some profit taking and things will begin to drop? I’m leaning toward the latter.
USD – N – This is down, so if equities are strong — and there’s follow-through with the strength, maybe there’s opportunity to short this here, but with my current sentiment, I don’t want to touch it. I’m expecting equities to drop shortly after the open which should cause this to rally, but at this point, a rally doesn’t look tradable. I’ll keep my eye on it in case it rallies a lot, but for now, I’ll hold off — Look to short on equity strength
CAD – N – This is near the bottom of it’s range, but still doesn’t look like it’s ready to break out to me. Also, since it’s not correlated with anything right now, really, there’s nothing to gauge it’s future movements against. I’ll hold off until this really starts to break those support levels
Today’s Pairs
GBP/NZD – Short
NZD/USD – Long
NZD/JPY – Long
EUR – N – This closed near it’s open yesterday, and is sitting right at it’s open today — still right in the middle of the range/base it’s been in for a month-and-a-half. I’ll leave this alone
GBP – S/N – This is on a nice rally, but it’s just getting up to the lows of the previous base. This looks more like a bear rally than a reversal to me, so I’ll look to short this as/if it pushes lower. Today It’s up, and made a run up, but has pulled back closer to the open, so I’ll take a look at this individual chart
JPY – N – If equities are strong here, I’ll look to short this — it’s sitting right on top of a support level and looks weak. I need to be mentally prepared to watch these things move in this direction right away, because equities are definitely going to spike, I have to be patient and wait for the follow-through. If there’s no follow through, I don’t want to touch this. I don’t see a scenario where it rallies enough to make a long trade worth it — Short on equity strength
AUD – N – This is still sitting right in the middle of it’s range and fully within yesterday’s candle (which didn’t move much at all, despite strength in equities, and ended up closing right near it’s open). This doesn’t seem to really be reacting to equity news that much anymore, so I’m just going to hold off here until there’s some conviction behind it
NZD – L – This pushed higher and looks like it’s just about ready to break out. There’s a level above the current high that it needs to break, but I think that’d be my entry point. It’s pulled back a bit from those highs, too, so there’s also a potential clear entry/stop point. I’ll definitely look to take this long today
CHF – N – This hasn’t moved much over the last 2 days, and today is no different. It’s fully within yesterday’s candle, and sitting right at it’s open. No matter what equities do, this isn’t in a place where I feel comfortable trading it.