Equities were below the 20 MA (but above the 50) for roughly 5 days. Today, in futures, price touched the 20MA, and is down. I’m overall bearish in the market still, so we’ll see if this is the day it finally drops, or if price rallies when the market opens. I’ll figure a way to do my analysis on both sides.
USD
If Equities Drop – Long
This is sitting at the bottom of a base that it’s been in for 4 days. It’s pushed a bit higher today already, but has dropped back to near it’s open. If equities drop, though, and this rises, there could be some opportunity just to the top of the base.
If Equities Rise – Short
If equities continue strong, though, this is sitting on some support, and if it breaks that level, there’s a good amount of room before the next support level. I can see myself taking this either way, we’ll see how it behaves
CAD – S – This has been following the S&P somewhat for the last couple of weeks, and right now, it’s near the top of it’s range and looks weak. If equities are weak, I’ll look to short this, but if they’re strong, I don’t want to touch this because there’s a lot of resistance above current price. There’s some support below this price, too, but it doesn’t seem as strong, and that level was already broken a couple of times within the last few days
EUR – N – This pushed to the bottom of it’s range today already, but stalled at a pretty strong level of support and has rallied some since then. There’s still a decent amount of room between current price and the very bottom of the range, so it doesn’t look like a good short play yet, and since it’s down so much, I don’t want to take this long. I’ll hold off for today
GBP – N – This has been very weak for the last week+, but yesterday, price rallied, and is up a bit again today. I definitely don’t like this to the upside, regardless of what equities do, and right now, it doesn’t look like it’s heading down soon. I’ll keep my eye on shorting this, it appears to be forming a bear rally, but I don’t want to touch it right now
JPY – L – This dropped a good amount yesterday, pushing through a couple levels of support. It did end up stopping, though, at a level that’s been both support and resistance (back in May and then again in September). It’s spiked so far today, but just pushed up to the low that made up the base it was in before yesterday’s drop. I want to like this to the upside on weak equity moves, but — actually, I do like this to the upside. If it can break todays highs, it’s be breaking a resistance level, and could run at least to the top of the range. I’ll take a look. I won’t entertain the idea of shorting this on equity strength, though. This is already up too much on the day
AUD – N – This has been in a tight range for about 3 weeks, and an even tighter base for the last 6 days, and unfortunately, I don’t like this to either direction right now. It’s a bit weak, but sitting right near it’s open, and while it’s pushed a little higher and lower already on the day, it stayed within yesterday’s candle. If this were to spike on equity strength, price is just too far below the top of the range for me to want to take this long (but close enough, too, that there isn’t enough room to try to trade this just to that level, and too far above the low to short this on positive equity news. I’ll keep my eye on this in case it does move, but for now, I think I have to leave this alone
Today’s Pairs
If Equities Rise
NZD/USD – Long
NZD/CHF – Long
NZD/CAD – Long
If Equities Fall
USD/CAD – Long
CAD/JPY – Short
NZD – L (if equities rise) – [Long] This looks a little better than Aussie, so I’ll entertain the idea of taking this long on equity Strength. This has made a new high today, and just got to the top of the range it’s been in for nearly a month. There is another level of resistance not too far outside of today’s highs, but I’ll see what that looks like on an individual chart and how it translates to R:R
CHF
If Equities Drop – Neutral
This has dropped pretty significantly already today, and stalled out at some support. Even if equities do drop, and this begins to rise, I don’t love it from this far down, it would have to stall somewhere near the top of the range.
If Equities Rise – Short
That said, if equities do indeed stay strong, and we’re in yet another risk-on day, this could push through this next level of resistance and be a good short. Yesterday’s low would be my entry point, but it’s not that far away from that level. I’ll see how this translates to individual charts