Equities did end up rallying yesterday and closed near the bottom of the base it was in before yesterday (up 1.1%). Futures are down so far this morning, but not much at all. I think I’m going to lean risk-on, and assume another rally to take this back to the top of it’s range.
USD – S/N – Since I’m playing these ranges, this is in a good position to take short today. This is at the top of it’s range, and pushed down a bit already this morning, and if it can push through today’s low, that’d be a good sign that it’ll run down to the low of the range. The thing giving me pause is the fact that there was a bit of a rally in equities yesterday and this did basically nothing, so we’ll see.
CAD – N – This is starting to look more and more like it wants to break to the downside, but it’s not really moving in a way that I like. Yesterday looked like it might be poised to make a run up to the top of it’s range, but after pushing up a bit, it closed near it’s open. The day before pushed up and down a lot, but also closed near it’s open. Today’s candle is decidedly down, but isn’t pushing through those levels, and it doesn’t have much of an up move at all. I’ll hold off today, but I’m going to try to pay close attention to get ready to short this when/if it breaks out
Today’s Pairs
AUD/USD – Long
NZD/USD – Long
EUR – N – This is up a bit, still in this long base/range. I’m going to continue to hold off here
GBP – N – If this move over the last few days was just a bear rally, it’s somewhat proving itself out. After the 2 day rally, and making a new swing high, price has been down for the last 3 days. That said, it hasn’t reached the low that it made when it dropped late last week, so it’s not in a position to be shorted yet, but maybe soon
JPY – N – This is basing now, too, and the last 3 candles have barely moved at all. Today, I’d expect this to be more weak, but it’s up a good amount (but still not pushing through any resistance levels. If the market does in face drop again in the near future, I’ll look to take this long, but for now, I’m going to hold off
AUD – L/N – Similar to JPY, this is down when I’d expect it to be up a bit. Maybe it’s reacting to futures and I’m expecting a different outcome. Regardless, it’s not down that much right now, and if things do turn around, today’s high would be a good entry point to play the range. I’ll take a look at individual charts, but I won’t chase — this isn’t my favorite
NZD – L/N – This pushed up a bit yesterday, and pulled back at some light resistance. Today, this is up again, but has since pulled back from the highs. If this continues strong, though, as I’m expecting with the sentiment, today’s high looks like a great point to take this to the top of the range
CHF – N – Like JPY, I’d expect this to be weak today and it’s not. Also, even if it were to reverse, today’s lows didn’t even get as low as yesterday’s. I don’t love this right now, so I’ll hold off
Equities pushed down over 1% already. Re-doing some analysis quickly
USD – N – It is up, but not a ton, and I don’t think it’s poised to break out strongly (it has a bit of room before the next breakout level, too.
CAD – S/N – This is continuing to push down, and is creeping up to some support. I’ll see what individual charts look like
EUR – L/N – This is up, bouncing off of the bottom of it’s range. There’s some room to the next resistance level, so there might be some opportunity there
GBP – N – Did drop, but doesn’t look ready to break out
JPY – N – Remaining strong, but not at levels that appear poised to make a meaningful move
Today’s Pairs
EUR/CAD – Long
CAD/CHF – Short
EUR/AUD – Long
AUD/CHF – Short
AUD – S/N – Remaining weak, but near some support. If it can break that level, there’s some room to the bottom of it’s range
NZD – N – This did pull back but is still up on the day. Even if it does reverse and become weak, there’s not enough room to the next support level, so I’ll hold off
CHF – L – This looks ready to break out on the negativity of equities. Def. looking to take this long