Equities dropped pretty significantly on Thursday, were down slightly on Friday (though they kind of pushed in both directions, just closed slightly down, near the open), and futures are down over 2% today. Definitely looks like a risk-off scenario, so that’s what I’ll be looking for today.
USD – L/N – This is up for the third day in a row, and has made a new high today. That said, it’s already pulled back a ton to it’s open, and near a resistance level. I don’t love the pattern here, but it being a risk off day, I wanted to take a look at individual charts, so I’ll do that — but I won’t chase
CAD – N – This has been acting strangely lately. In the recent past, this has shown signs of being a currency of safety, but lately that hasn’t really held up. This was weak last week, though it spiked on Friday, and is down again today. Even if I were to look to short this, it would be a breakout of last Thursday/Friday’s lows, so I’ll just hold off here
Today’s Pairs
AUD/USD – Short
USD/JPY – Long
EUR – N – This is ranging and is currently in the middle of that range stuck at a support/resistance level. This has already pushed quite high on the day, but has since pulled back to near the open. There could maybe be a case to be made to short this to the bottom of it’s range, but I don’t love that. If I don’t see anything that looks better, maybe I’ll revisit this
GBP – N – This has been in a strange base/range for about a month now, and isn’t showing signs of breaking that. It’s at the bottom of the range now and heading up, but it’s stuck at some resistance. I’ll hold off until this starts really moving
JPY – N – This had a 4-day up-move that ended Friday with a candle that made a new high but ultimately closed about .5% lower. Today, price is up slightly, and has already been up further and has pulled back. And today’s up-move didn’t quite get as high as yesterday’s high either. I’ll hold off on this — I might look at USD/JPY just in case
AUD – S/N – Similar to USD in that, if we are in a risk-off environment, I would expect this to drop. This has steadily moved lower over the course of the last 5 days, with a couple of up-days in between. Today, it’s made a new low, but rallied a bit already, and is at some support. The low reached another support level, but failed to break it. If it were to break it, there might be enough pips available, which is why I want to take a look at some individual charts
NZD – N – After dropping for most of last week, this rallied on Friday, and is up slightly today. This has already dropped quite a bit, and is now up. This is a strange one, as I would expect it to drop on risk-off days, but it doesn’t look like that’s going to be the case here. It is stuck at some resistance as well, so I’ll hold off here
CHF – N – This is up today, but it more looks like the beginning of a high base than anything. It pushed higher most of last week, dropped significantly on Friday, and is up a bit today, but nowhere near Friday’s highs, which were a bit lower than Thursday’s highs still. I’ll leave this alone for now