Welcome to my blog. This is where I share my trades in the financial markets (primarily Forex) and occasionally analyze the markets beforehand. Today, I’m talking through a long trade I took in the Euro-Yen Forex pair. Read on to see how this trade played out.
Full disclosure, I took this trade on March 28th, but I didn’t take notes about it right away — only screenshots. Today’s 4/3, so I’m analyzing this trade in hindsight.
EUR/JPY
Expected Entry – 163.54 Stop Level – 163.38 Target – 163.8 R:R – 1.6
Starting on the 4 hour chart, price made a peak a couple of days prior, but pulled back over the next few days. After about 3 days of pulling back, price pushed up a bit and moved sideways. On the day I took this trade, price had made another push down, and was seemingly stalling at the key area that was formed after that first 3-day pullback.
Price appeared to be struggling to push through that level, and the most-recently closed candle had a long lower wick. It looked like strength was coming back in to this pair.
Dropping down to the 15 minute chart, there was a pretty clean pullback that had just formed, so I set a long entry order.
Entry – 163.541
The pullback completed fairly quickly, and only about 6 minutes after setting the order, price pushed up enough to trigger the entry in to the trade.
Exit – 163.38
Price looked strong initially. It gained close to 5 pips (~.5R) over the next 5 minutes, but immediately started dropping from there. After only another 15 minutes, price had pushed down enough to trigger my exit for a full loss.
On the 4 hour chart, price had been strong overall, and while there had been some weakness over the week prior to this trade, that weakness appeared to be ending when I got to this chart. Price stalled at some support and while the MAs had touched, they hadn’t crossed over yet. On top of that, RSI was around 50 (though, technically, it was below that line and sloping down).
On the 15 minute chart, the faster MA was starting to slope up, and RSI was above 50, and there was a pretty clear bull-pullback. While there were some conflicting signals, overall, a lot of evidence pointed toward strength. On top of that, the pattern I traded directly around suggested strength.
Conclusion
I, once again, am feeling at a loss. I find these setups that look relatively great, but they don’t work out… It’s frustrating. I’m not in the prediction business, though, and I think I’m still getting hung up on that. I’m in the probabilities business. I need to take a larger amount of trades with great setups so I can reap the rewards of the ones that do break.
I’m tired of saying the same things, though, and not being better. Somethings gotta change.
Thanks for reading! Let me know in the comments if you have any suggestions, and stay tuned for more trades.