Welcome to my trading journal! This is where I share my thoughts on the Forex market and talk through the actual trades that I make. Today, I’m analyzing different Forex pairs for February 27th, 2024. Read on to see my thoughts.
I started this blog because I wanted to share the ups and downs of trading, and so I want to be honest. And honestly, I’ve been on the struggle-bus over the last couple of weeks, and I need to get off of it. I guess my last trade was more discouraging than I originally thought. I say it all the time, though: I can’t go back. And I can’t do nothing, so I need to get back on the horse. Here’s to that.
I made it to WeWork again this morning, which is both positive and negative. It’s positive because I got out of the house and this place is more conducive to work than home is. But it’s negative because I can’t seem to get here and settled before 8:30 — really not even before 9.
I try to remind myself that the time that I start my day is less important, but I still don’t feel good about it. All I can do is dive in and hope for the best, though. So without further ado, let’s dive in. I sorted all of my pairs by volume and I’ve pulled out 5 already, hopefully I can find some great opportunities.
EUR/JPY – Long
Starting on the 4 hour chart, price has remained strong over the past week or so, but has pulled back a bit at the beginning of this week. That pullback has reached the rising 20MA, which is also around the highs of a small key area that formed last week. If the strength is to remain, I could see this being where price starts to head back to the upside.
Price was pushing up as I was typing that, so I ran the numbers. I dropped down to the 15 minute chart, and saw a period of sidways movement that looked like it offered a good entry and stop area. There was, granted, a lot of whipsawing in that base, but it was decidedly sideways and price was making a strong push up.
I initially tripled my risk, but didn’t like that target; so I zoomed back out to the 4h chart and picked a target there. That target offered me a 1.9 R:R, and I almost pulled the trigger. I hesitated, though, because this is the first thing I see today, and the first time I’m really doing an analysis in a week or so. I don’t want to make a dumb move because I’m itching to get back in to it.
The trade doesn’t look bad and the numbers make sense, but I just don’t want to be too overzealous. I think I’ll move on and look at the other charts, and plan to revisit this later to see how it’s been moving.
GBP/AUD – Long
I pulled this out because price seems to be rolling to the upside, and might be ready to break today/this week. After the “roll” price peaked, then pulled back roughly to the 20 MA, which has recently crossed above the 50. From there, price has made another push up, and is now roughly at a key area that’s held up going back to the end of January.
This is a tough place to look for entries. Price has pushed through this level a couple of times (sometimes strongly, sometimes not as much), but has continually pulled back to within this longer-term range. I could see this having more strength in the near future, but from a trading perspective, it’s tough. I don’t see a great entry point (one that’s not just below another strong resistance area) that would offer me a good enough R:R, so I’m going to just hold off.
AUD/JPY – Long
This has been up since the beginning of the month, but it peaked last Thursday and has been on a bit of a pullback from there. That pullback has seemingly bottomed out this week — it’s lows being just below the 50 MA — and could be pushing back up.
Unfortunately, even dropping down to lower time-frame charts, I’m not really seeing an entry pattern that I love. On top of that, there’s some very close key areas just outside of the day’s highs. I don’t see a clean entry or stop here on the lower time-frames, so I’m going to hold off. I might put in an order here based on the 4h/daily chart, because I believe in the overall strength; it’s just hard to find an entry/stop/target that’ll offer me a good R:R. The only place I can see one is the daily chart, and that would probably mean I’m holding all week.
I’m going to move on for now, and revisit if I don’t end up liking anything else.
EUR/AUD – Long
This is interesting this morning. Actually, I don’t think I like it. Since the beginning of the month (and a bit going further back, but it’s a mess prior to February), this has largely been in a 150 pip range; sometimes swinging fully withing those 150 pips, and sometimes being in a tight range.
It was in one of those tight ranges (around the lows of the overall range) over the last week or so, but yesterday price made a really strong spike and pushed up to (technically a little bit through) the highs of the range. From there, price made a somewhat sharp pullback, but that pullback was only about 1/3 of yesterday’s up-move.
This looks like it could be a great bull-pullback to trade in to, but the more I look at it, the more it gives me pause. Over the last month+, price has failed once it got to that level, even if it pushed a little outside of the range. Overall, it does feel like there’s underlying strength here, but it could just as easily fake me out. I think I’ll set an alert here, and consider trading this if the alert is hit.
GBP/CAD – Long
Well, this would’ve been great. If I was able to find this when price got to it’s 20 MA (and, of course, actually like the numbers and pull the trigger) I’d be sitting pretty right now. I didn’t, though, and now everything looks extended. I’ll just leave this alone for today and revisit tomorrow/maybe later today if I decide to do an afternoon trading sesh.
Thanks for reading! Let me know in the comments what you thought about today’s analysis — if you have any feedback or questions, feel free to use the comments for that too. Don’t forget to check back often for more analysis and trades!