Welcome to my blog! This is my trading journal where I share my thoughts on the Forex market, and talk through the trades that I make. Today, I took a short trade in the pair Pound-Yen; read on to see how this trade played out.
GBP/JPY Short
Expected Entry – 186.6 Stop Level – 187.07 Target – 185.44 R:R – 2.5
This had been in a base around a strong resistance area for several days. I noticed some Doji’s last week and wanted to short it then, but never really saw the opportunity. This morning, price broke the lows of the base and when I got to the chart was making a pretty clear bear-rally on the hourly chart. I put in an order quickly and it triggered immediately.
I picked an initial target using the daily chart (through a couple minor levels of support) and the R:R was ridiculous — over 5. It didn’t seem realistic, so I used the fib retracement to determine a target. It was much more realistic with a still close to 2.5 R:R, so I went with that.
Entry – 186.599
Exit – 187.07
Once again, my entry was essentially the lows that price reached, and just under an hour later, it rallied up to my stop. And, once again, looking at the chart and the pattern and all of the context, I like the trade — and actually, after basing a little above my exit, price ultimately did push down to my target. I missed the move by about a day.
Takeaways? I have no idea. The only thing I can think to do is to continue to remind myself that I’m not in the predicting business, I’m in the probabilities business; and I need to just keep hunting for those perfect setups whose wins will wipe out the losses and put me in to profit. Just keep swimming.
This wasn’t the best first month of the year, but the wheels are turning. I’ve got a plan to get out of the house more, hopefully I’ll be more focused without the distractions of home.
Thanks for reading! Let me know in the comments what you thought about today’s trade and if you’ve got any feedback or advice. And as always, stay tuned for more trades and analysis!