Welcome to my blog! This is where I share my Forex journal — my thoughts on the market before I make trades and my analysis of the actual trades I make. Today, I’m going through various currency pairs to find trading setups. Read on to see my thoughts for January 30, 2024.
It’s a fairly sluggish morning today. Yesterday was fairly unproductive, and it’s trickling in to today a bit. I got out of bed a little late and haven’t gotten a protein shake yet, but it’s after 8:30 so I’m going to dive in.
GBP/JPY – Short
Starting on the daily chart, price had been basing for several days. I noticed 2 Doji candles last week, and thought this would be viable to short then. That never came to fruition, though, but this morning, price appears to be breaking. It’s pushed through the lows of the base, and while technically this would be a breakout trade, it’s an early break of a strong base.
On the 4 hour chart, there was a bit of a stall, but as I’m typing this, price appears to be making another push. I think I’m going to run the numbers here and try to get a trade in before I move on to other pairs.
EUR/JPY – Short
I’m bearish Pound-Yen, so I shouldn’t be bullish Euro-Yen, but I might be. Price has been up for the last month or so (going back to late December), but peaked 2 Friday’s ago. There’s been a pullback from there, and this morning, price has reached the MAs which have just crossed to the upside. And price is stalling at that level.
Additionally, the area price is hovering/stalling right now was a key (resistance) area back in August and October, and could be acting as support now. That said, dropping to the 4 hour chart, this push down looks more like price is trending down, now. The MAs have crossed to the downside, there are definite lower lows and lower highs, and RSI is pushing below 50.
Actually, this looks like a perfect candidate for a OCO order, so I think I’m going to give that a shot, now. I’m going to open an order on either side of this, and cancel the one that doesn’t trigger when/if one does. If it gets to a point where I’m not longer going to be monitoring the charts, I’ll cancel both orders, as this is going to take more attention and management to pull off. Let’s see how it goes.
I don’t actually know. I ran the numbers to the long side first, and initially, couldn’t get past a 1.75 R:R with my numbers. Dropping to the hourly chart, and there’s an argument that price broke some resistance and made a bull-pullback to trade in to, but that’s not exactly what I was looking for, and it kind of takes away the short idea.
I hemmed and hawed on this and price pushed up through where I would have entered on a long trade. I could stick with it, maybe do a market order etc. but since I had an outlook in both directions, I’ll just hold off since I couldn’t do the OCO. I’ll draw lines on the chart to see how it played out in the coming days.
USD/JPY – Neutral
I’m not 100% sure what I saw when I pulled this out initially. Overall, price has largely been ranging/basing for the last couple of weeks, and price is largely in the middle of that range. I don’t really see any strong conviction in either direction, so I’ll hold off.
GBP/AUD – Short
This looks pretty decent, but I’m not sure I want to take 2 GBP trades. Actually, it looks similar to GBP/JPY. Price had been strong for a couple of weeks in the new year, but peaked about 2 weeks ago and has been moving sideways since. This morning, price broke the lows of that sideways movement and could be gearing up to make a push to the downside.
On the 4 hour chart, price reached a low then rallied, which might be a great bear-rally to short in to. The only thing giving me pause here is that the lows here are just above the highs from a range-bound period that occurred back in November-December. I wouldn’t be shocked to discover that price stalled at that level and maybe even started to push back up.
Overall, if I’m bearish GBP, I should be comfortable trading this, but I’m less bearish GBP and more bearish GBP/JPY based on price action not overall currency movement. And while I like this to the short side too, that key area makes me nervous. I’ll hold off for now and maybe keep and eye on it throughout the day to see if the short play becomes more viable.
EUR/AUD – Short
I shorted this last week — a trade that ended up breaking even as price rallied back up to the prior support (now resistance) area. From there last week, price made another strong drop and pushed through my target, nearing a deeper initial target I had for a short trade in this pair. That’s really frustrating to see — breaking even on a trade when ultimately price pushed through my target — but that’s trading. I should just be thankful it wasn’t a loss.
Anyway. Price bottomed out overnight last night, and has been rallying all morning. That rally has reached the 20 MA, and also roughly the key area that was my entry on my last short trade. This looked like it would be a really good candidate for a continuation to the downside, but this has been really strong all morning. So strong, in fact, that I’m no longer viewing this as a short play here. I’m not ready to say it’s reversing to the upside, but I don’t feel comfortable shorting it.
I’ll keep an eye on it, see how it behaves around it’s Moving Averages/key areas; but for now, I’m going to leave it alone.
GBP/CHF – Short
This pair had been strong since the beginning of the year, but price peaked last Monday and has been steadily pushing down since. This morning, price somewhat based through the early hours, but made another push down a couple of hours ago. Right now, I’m not seeing any major key areas where price could stall, and the next actual area, might make for a good target.
I’m on the 4h chart right now, and there’s a bit of a lower wick and price is rallying back up to a minor key area that’s basically only formed on this downward push. On the hourly chart, that looks like a decent bear-rally; but I’m less concerned with the cleanliness of the pattern, and more hoping the numbers work out. This looks decisively weak, and I want to be in. Stay tuned to see how this plays out.
Thanks for reading! What did you think of today’s analysis? Let me know in the comments below. Or, if you saw something different than me, let me know about that as well. And stay tuned to the blog for more analysis and trades!