Welcome to my blog! This is where I share my trading journal — my analysis of the markets before I get into any trades, and the results (and my thoughts on) the actual trades I make. Today, i’m analyzing the Forex market for January 24th, 2024. Read on to see my thoughts for today.
Positivity, positivity, positivity. It’s been difficult for me, but I need to try to remain positive and go into the markets with a good attitude. With that in mind, I got out of bed a little after 8 and was able to have a protein shake and get a cup of coffee before 8:30. I started sorting the charts right away, and it’s now 8:45 and I’ve got 6 pairs I like that I’m going to dive deeper in to.
Some of them, naturally, are pairs I thought were long yesterday and Monday but that I’m looking at short today. And a couple I didn’t pull out earlier this week at all. The pairs that I picked out today that I like in the same direction as I did earlier this week, are actually (at first glance) my least favorite pairs on the day. So I think I’m definitely going to do away with using the currency baskets.
Going forward, if I do another weekly analysis on a Monday, I’ll just look through the pairs individually on the daily chart to find my bias, and then start my trading the subsequent mornings on the 2h chart with my bias in mind. We’ll cross those bridges as we come to them, though.
As I mentioned, I’ve got 6 pairs I want to go through, so let’s get started.
GBP/JPY – Long
This is one of the pairs I called out on Monday that I was still bullish on when I first glanced at it. Looking at it a bit more closely, though, and I don’t love it. On the 4 hour chart, after peaking last Thursday, price seems to be rolling over to the downside. This morning, it’s been approaching the 50 MA (it already pushed through the 20), and that could be the dip that I’d want to buy.
Looking at the 2 hour chart, though, and strength looks less likely. The 20 MA has just crossed the 50 MA to the downside, and price is below both, making new recent lows. In fact, I almost want to short this here. It would be a counter-trend trade looking at the 2/4h charts, but on the daily chart, it’s more of a range-bound trade. Spreads aren’t that bad, so I think I’ll run the numbers here and just be quick to cancel the trade if things start to look bad.
EUR/JPY – Long
This looks pretty similar to Pound-Yen (of course) — similar run-up since the beginning of the year, similar rounding over the last couple trading days, and similarly looks ready to break to the downside. The only things keeping me out of this trade are A) the fact that the move is already happening, and I missed an entry trigger (I guess I could do a market order, but I’m going to hold off) and B) the fact that the GBP/JPY trade triggered pretty quickly and I don’t need to be in the same trade twice.
If I had gotten to this earlier, maybe I would’ve taken a shot in both, or maybe even taken my shot here instead of there. Can’t go back, though. I’m going to ride with my Pound-Yen trade, and maybe look here if that one stalls out or something.
EUR/AUD – Long
I’m honestly not 100% sure what I saw initially when I pulled out this chart. Starting on the 4 hour chart, price has been up all year. It peaked on Wednesday and pulled back for about a day. From there, it largely moved sideways, though I can see a lower high and a lower low.
That second drop (the lower-low) reached the upward-sloping 50MA, though, and has been seemingly failing to push below that level. On top of that, the 20 MA is starting to slope back upward and RSI is hovering right on 50. This looks like it could be a good candidate to play a continuation if price pushes back to the upside.
Dropping down to the 1 hour chart, and I don’t love what I’m seeing. Price looks mostly down/sideways. On the 2 hour chart there’s a decent Bull Flag, maybe, but I’m not sure that’s worth trading — even if it were, price is sitting pretty far off of my would-be entry.
For now, I think I’ll hold off and maybe revisit later.
EUR/USD
Unfortunately, I don’t know where my head was at when I pulled this pair out, either. Price has largely been down this year, though it based through most of last week. Yesterday, from midnight until the US market opened, this dropped strong, taking out the lows of that range. From about 8 yesterday until early this morning, though, price has rallied hard and has taken out the highs of that same range.
I can’t recall what I originally saw, and I don’t like how it’s currently moving, so I’m going to leave this alone for today.
AUD/NZD – Short
Aussie-Kiwi had been pushing down for most of 2024, until it made a strong spike up at the end of last week. That spike lasted until Monday night, when price started dropping hard. That drop bottomed out at the end of the day yesterday; and since midnight, price has been on a small rally.
I think I’m going to look to short into that small rally. Price has reached some resistance that was strong prior support, and the up-move doesn’t look extended at all, or like it’s returning to the upside. Dropping to the 2 hour chart, I don’t necessarily see a pattern to short in to, but I see clearly defined support and resistance where I can put my entry and stop orders. I’m going to pick a target and run the numbers, putting out an entry order if they’re there.
GBP/CAD
This was going to be a breakout trade. Price had been strong since the end of December, but it peaked last Wednesday. There was a pullback from there, but price pushed back up to the highs on Monday. There was yet another pullback from there and this morning, price was retesting that level once again. Given a good entry/stop/target, I liked this.
Unfortunately, though, I didn’t get to the chart in time; I was analyzing other pairs. Looking now, price made the push and broke that key area. There might be another small pullback forming that I could take long; but I don’t want to chase. RSI is approaching (or in) overbought territory on multiple time-frames.
Conclusion
I’m in one trade and have an order out for another, so I’m going to let those ride. I may revisit some of these later today, but that’s unlikely. I’ll monitor and manage my current trades, and journal those when they close.
Thanks for reading! Let me know in the comments what you thought about today’s analysis. And stay tuned for more analysis and trades!