Welcome to my financial analysis and trading blog. This is where I share my thoughts on the Forex market, where I see opportunities to potentially make money, and talk through the actual trades I make. Today, I’m analyzing the market for December 13th, 2023. Read on to see my thoughts.
I once again went to bed late, so I got started late, so lets get right into it. I’ve already looked at the charts and pulled out 4 (plus set an alert in another) so I’m going to see if there’s any opportunity in those. I might move on quickly to other work if I don’t find anything quickly.
AUD/NZD
So, I didn’t mark this with a direction, which might automatically disqualify this. I think ultimately I’m bullish here, but there is some price action that could suggest a reversal to the downside. Price spiked pretty hard yesterday evening; it peaked around 3am and pulled back a good amount (about 1/4 of the preceding up-move) and has been largely moving sideways since.
Technically, I see a lower low and a lower high over the last hour or so, but at the same time, price seems to be stalling at the lower Bollinger Band, which is also the 50 MA area. I think if I were to trade this, I’d want to zoom out, get a bit of a longer-term outlook and make a play based on that. I’m focusing on the 15/5 minute charts right now, though, so I’ll move on and revisit if I don’t like anything else.
GBP/USD – Short
This looks like it would essentially be a breakout play, so I’m not sure why I pulled it out. Save for a bunch of wild movement for about 2.5 hours early yesterday, this has largely been rolling to the downside. This morning, price bottomed out, spiked up to the upper band pretty hard, then pushed back down through the lows it made when it bottomed out.
I’m not sure why I’m even talking this through. Maybe, when I first came across this, it hadn’t pushed that far down yet and I thought it might still be viable, but despite a pretty clear bear-rally on the 5 minute chart, this is a breakout trade, and I’m trying to avoid those.
EUR/AUD – Long
I like this, but I could also see falling into the trap of this has actually reversed and I’m holding on to an antiquated outlook. Price made a good push up yesterday from the start of the day until the afternoon — about 12 hours. Price largely moved sideways from there, until it pushed out of the lows of the range around 8 this morning. That downard push, while deep, doesn’t look like an extended reversal move, and it’s stalled at some support from Monday.
Price seems to be bouncing off of the lower band now and heading to the upside, and it looks like I’ll have some good numbers available, too. I’m going to drop to the 5 minute chart to look for entries here.
AUD/JPY – Short
I accidentally had the 5 minute chart selected still when I switched to this one, and immediately I don’t really want to trade this. It’s very choppy. I could call out a pattern, probably, but how many times have I been burned trying to discern a pattern during choppy trading? I’m not going to put myself through that, so I’ll just hold off.
I’ve got one order out there and an alert to let me know about another. Not the most prolific trading day right now, but I’m also not in the best position to trade right now. I’ve got some stuff I want to work on anyway, so I might come back later and look for some overnight opportunities. Regardless, hopefully the things I do like work out!
Thanks for reading. What did you think about today’s analysis? Let me know in the comments. And stay tuned for more analysis and trades!