Welcome to my Forex technical analysis journal/blog. This is where I examine the price action and technical indicators in various currency pairs to determine the best day and swing trades. Read on to see my thoughts on the market for December 6th, 2023.
Today’s an alright day. Not the worst, not the best. I need to work on feeling more excitement toward diving into the markets instead of anxiety, but that’s for another day. I woke up a little late today, but I’ve got my coffee and I’m ready to dive in.
GBP/AUD – Short
I was right about my short outlook here yesterday, but again, I mistimed it. The rally that stopped me out ended up pushing all the way to my original stop-loss level, but from there dropped hard pushing down to about 2x my target from yesterday.
Looking at the 2 hour chart, price rallied overnight and has pushed back to the lows that were created before the overnight rally. RSI is sloping down and pushing below 50, and price is a cgood amount above the lower band. I will say that there was a good amount of volatility here over the last couple days, and those might be waning, but outside of that, I like this short.
Price seems to be moving now, so I’m going to look for entries before I move on.
USD/JPY – Short
This is interesting, and I’m not sure how viable it’s going to be. The more I look at it, the more it looks sideways over directional right now. Overall, since mid-November, this has been pushing down pretty strongly, but has been on a rally since the beginning of this month.
That rally peaked overnight last night (reaching the upper Bollinger Band) and falling pretty sharply from there. Price made another rally (one candle on the 2 hour chart), but price is already sitting closer to the lows of that rally than the highs. Also, since about 2 or 3 days ago, RSI has been moving sideways right around the 50 level.
Overall, I do feel like there’s mostly downward pressure here, but I don’t know if there’s enough to offer a low enough target that gives me a good R:R. I’ll hold off for now and maybe revisit if I don’t like anything else.
EUR/AUD – Short
On the 2 hour chart, this bear rallied very similarly to GBP/AUD. Unlike Pound-Aussie, though, this didn’t push all the way back down to the lows before the rally. And over the past 4 hours, price has just been moving sideways.
I like this to the downside, but I wouldn’t pick a target below the lows before the rally, and I can already see there’s less than a 2 R:R offered at those levels. I’ll hold off for now and maybe revisit later/tomorrow.
EUR/USD – Short
I looked at this short initially, did a pretty full analysis and decided to leave it alone. I did a double-take at my watchlist before moving on, though, and realized that I had this marked as a Long, not a short. So, let’s see if longs are in play.
Overall, essentially starting the beginning of October, and really taking off the beginning of November, this has been trending up. Price peaked on 11/28, and has been pushing down from there. On the 4 hour chart, price has both pushed through the lower band and has entered oversold territory.
As I mentioned earlier, this made a new swing high above the base that it’s been in for a day or so, and pulled back from there. The pullback is deep — too deep to call this a retest or even a bull-pullback I’d say — so I will leave this alone, but for a different reason. I’ll keep my eye on this to see if it makes a power reversal move, and offers me long entry opportunities.
USD/CAD – Short
This has been weak for at least two weeks now, and I actually lost a short trade here yesterday. I’m still bearish, though. The move that stopped me out was a decent rally, and pushed price up to the upper band (officially) and pushed through the downward-sloping 50EMA. Through yesterday evening and overnight, though, this has appeared to roll back to the downside, and price is sitting on my entry from yesterday, now.
The 15 minute chart is pretty wild, but I see a decent bear-rally on the hourly chart. Given my target from yesterday (which I believe is still in play) it looks like my R:R might still hold up. I’m going to run the numbers here and take another short shot if they’re good.
Thanks for reading! Let me know in the comments what you thought about today’s analysis. Or, let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Otherwise, stay tuned for more Forex market technical analysis and trades!