Welcome to my investing and trading blog. This is where I share my thoughts on different financial markets, and talk through the trades that I make. Today, I’m analyzing the Forex market for November 9th, 2023. Read on to see how I think different pairs may move today.
I got up early today and was at the computer before 7:30. I was able to have a protein shake, meditate etc. all before 8:15. It’s now 8:20, and I’m ready to dive in. Unfortunately, even with having a decent start to the day, I’m still feeling some anxiety. It’s very frustrating, but here we are.
The only thing I’ve figured out that actually helps (as difficult it is to actually do) is to push through and do my best to get work done. So, let’s dive in to the charts.
GBP/JPY – Long
This is again (still?) the highest volume pair out of all of the pairs I look at. And I’m still not sure if I want to trade it. Monday, price made a new recent high, but has been pulling back from there. Price “bottomed” out at the end of the day Tuesday, and started pushing back up from there. Overnight last night, price made another decent push up, but failed to reach the highs from Monday.
Price has pushed down from there, and (on the 4h chart) price is sitting in the middle of the Bollinger Bands, right on the 20 MA line. RSI also came out of overbought on Tuesday and is sloping downward, but it’s still above 50. Overall, I’m bullish here, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see more selling pressure here. I’ll mark this to look at it long, but I’m not going to look for entries quite yet. I’ll look at other charts and then revisit this one.
EUR/JPY – Long
Aw man, this is tough. On the 4 hour chart, price is in a perfect high base right now. But I’m not playing breakouts right now, so I should hold off. The base is so clear, though, it’s hard for me to ignore. That said, price has recently touched the upper band and is essentially overbought on the RSI (it’ll definitely be overbought given another push up), so if there is another push up, it likely won’t be that strong.
A 2R target doesn’t seem viable giving the risk level of the base, so overall, I don’t want to trade this today. I just wanted to call out the clean base. I’ll draw a couple hypothetical entry/stop/target lines on this chart, and see how it ends up moving today.
GBP/AUD – Long
This has been a tough one lately. A couple weeks ago, I drew 2 upward trendlines that it appeared price was trading within. A week or so ago, though, price pushed through the lower trendline and that has been acting as a bit of a rising resistance area since then. There was a strong drop at the beginning of this month, but since then, price has been trending up. Overnight last night, price made a new swing high, but has pulled back from there, and is sitting on a key area that’s held up several times over the last couple of months.
The recent swing high didn’t quite touch the upper band, and RSI didn’t cross into overbought territory; so this current pullback might be a buying opportunity. Price is still trending up, stalling at a key area (which is also the 20 MA), and RSI is above 50, so I’m going to keep my eye on this for a return to the upside.
EUR/AUD – Neutral
There’s a lot of chop here. Price made a pretty huge spike yesterday, but has steadily been pulling back from there. That move looked extended, but overall this has been trending up so I’m not ready to short it. In fact, these large, singular outsized moves are seemingly a key characteristic of this pair, and they (lately) tend to happen around the 20 MA/middle of the BBs, so I’ll set an alert to let me know when price reaches that area, at which point, I’ll look for longs.
AUD/JPY – Neutral/Long
I want to be bullish here, but I don’t want to chase either. Price has been up since the end of last month; there was a period of sideways movement at the beginning of this month, followed by another push up. Tuesday, price pulled back pretty hard and reached the lows of that sideways movement I just mentioned, and has slowly been pushing up from there.
That pullback got price close to the lower band, but it didn’t quite touch it, and now price has just pushed up above the 20 MA, appearing to return to the upside. The main thing giving me pause, though, is that during this return to the upside, yesterday, price made a resistance area that price is coming back up to. A lot of signs are pointing toward bullishness, but at the same time, I don’t want to trade right in to a key area. I think I’ll keep an eye on this for now, and look to enter when I’m more convinced that the up-move is going to happen.
USD/JPY – Long/Neutral
For about 4 days, from 10/30 – 11/3, this made an outsized push up, followed by an almost equally as outsized return to the original price. From there, though, price has been pushing up again, but this time it’s been very steady. Price topped out overnight last night, making a new swing high, and has made a small pullback from there; which could be a good place to look for entries.
That said, the pullback isn’t very deep, and it wouldn’t be a trade bouncing off of the lower band, or even the 20 MA. It’s a relatively small bull-pullback. On yet another hand, though, on the 4h chart, price hasn’t touched the upper band yet and RSI hasn’t gotten into overbought territory.
I dropped down to the 15 min. chart to see how I felt about this and I like it long a little better, but not enough to actually look for entries yet. Price got to nearly oversold territory (though it didn’t quite cross below 30), and is now sloping up approaching 50. And, price is bouncing off of the lower Bollinger band. There are a couple of resistance areas between current price and the recent highs where I’d set my target, so I’m not going to pull any triggers yet. But I’ll keep my eye on it to see if it trades in a way that I’d be comfortable taking it long.
Conclusion
That was 6 pairs, and of those I plan on looking at 3. I think that’s a good amount for now, so I’m going to focus on trying to get in to trade an not looking for other opportunities. I may look elsewhere if I don’t find anything I like, but chances are, I’ll just wait until tomorrow. We’ll see.
I may also look later for an overnight trade. Again, we’ll see. I haven’t been very good at being disciplined after a certain point so, baby steps. Hopefully it all works out and I’m able to make money today regardless.
Thanks for reading! What did you think about today’s analysis? Let me know in the comments. And don’t forget to bookmark this page and check back frequently for more financial market analysis and trades.