Welcome to another entry into my trading and investing blog/journal. This is the place where I share my thoughts on the financial markets, as well as the trades that I make within them. Read on to see how this long EUR/AUD Forex trade played out.
Unfortunately, I’m analyzing today’s trade a couple weeks after it happened. I can’t remember my exact thought process, so I have to assume what I was thinking based on how I trade. Let’s start with my analysis from that morning:
This looks promising for the opposite reason AUD/JPY looked promising. Also, I went to this chart while I still had the 5 min. timeframe selected and on the 5 min. chart it looks like a breakout to the upside is forming. I went up to the 2h chart to see how it’s moving there, and it still looks decent. Price is pushing up off of the lower band and RSI is coming out of oversold and heading up.
It’ll depend on my numbers obviously, but I’m going to look to put in a long order here.
Entry – 1.6556
Stop – 1.654
Target – 1.66
R:R – 2.75
That’s all of the pairs above 80K in volume (which is already lower than what I typically look for — above 90K, ideally 100K), so I’m going to call it here. I’ve got 2 orders out there, so I’m just going to monitor those. I may revisit the charts if these two trades reverse on me, but I feel good about where I’m at.
Entry – 1.6556
Reading my initial analysis, I see where I was coming from. Especially given the fact that I saw this on the 5 minute chart first, so I was biased pretty quickly. Price was pushing out of oversold levels, and it was somewhat trending up (I can definitely see a swing high and then a higher low before it made the next strong push up).
But I keep going back and forth here. While I can by definition see the higher high and higher low, it doesn’t really strike me as an actual uptrend. It looks, today, like a relatively outsized spike to the upside. But at the same time, I’ve definitely seen these moves make a subsequent spike. Maybe this should have been one of those scenarios where I shouldn’t have taken either direction because I could argue both.
Regardless, I did, so let’s see how it played out.
Less than 10 minutes after setting my entry order, price made another decent push up and triggered me in to the trade. From there, it almost immediately pushed to about 10 pips of profit.
Exit – 1.65399
About 12 pips of profit is as high as this ever got for me. Steadily after peaking at 12 pips, price pushed down and triggered my stop loss.
Similar to my other trade today, I wasn’t exactly wrong about the indicator reasons as to why I took this trade (meaning, my readings of the indicators weren’t incorrect), but I overlooked other factors such as extended moves and key areas. I could’ve taken a bit more time here and maybe I would have disqualified the trade in the first place. Live and learn, and just keep swimming.
Thanks for reading! What did you think about today’s trade? Let me know in the comments. And stay tuned for more Forex analysis and trades.