Welcome to another entry into my trading and investing blog. Follow along as I analyze the Forex market for today, November 2nd, 2023.
I’m up at a decent time this morning. I Made coffee, had a protein shake, and meditated, and it’s only now 8:25. There was one news announcement this morning, but it was at 7:30, so it’s already passed. Don’t have to worry about that. There’s another one at noon, but I’ll be finished trading by then.
I’m experimenting with dictating my analysis again this morning, as typing everything seems difficult right now. I’m also still (always) trying to figure out the most efficient workflow for myself. I’ve got the pairs sorted by volume, and it looks like Pound-Yen is at the top of the list again/still. Let’s dive in and see where opportunities lie.
GBP/JPY – Neutral/Long
Pound-Yen at the top of the list and it doesn’t look like something I want to trade right now. On the four hour chart, it spiked pretty hard yesterday, taking out a fairly strong resistance area. Actually, it broke an initial resistance area quite strongly and pushed up to another key area that’s held up going back to early September.
The initial resistance area that was broken held going back to early October, so it was a pretty significant spike. It looks like an outsized move. That said, that was yesterday. Today price is pulling back again a bit and it’s retesting that initial key level that held up throughout October.
On the daily chart, price is sitting in the middle of the bands, and they’re starting to curl up. The RSI also just got above 50, so it looks like there might be some strength coming in the near future.
Dropping down to the 2 hour chart, the RSI is starting to slope down a bit, and the Bollinger Bands are starting to slope down/squeezing. But, if price is hitting the lower band here, it might be more indication of coming strength. Especially around this key area that’s now acting as support.
Dropping down further to the 15 minute chart, movement is pretty wild. The pullback that I noticed on the 2 hour chart looks much deeper here, and with a lot of whipsawing happening during the move. I thought I was going to be more bullish here, but seeing how wild these moves are, I’m not so sure anymore.
An ideal scenario would be if this were to make another higher high and then retest this key area again, further indicating a return to the upside. I’ll set an alert to let me know if it does so, but otherwise I’m going to just move on.
EUR/JPY – Long
This looks similar to Pound-Yen in that it had a significant push up and broke a pretty strong key area a couple days ago. From there, it’s pulled back and has kind of tested the highs of that key area if not pushed through him a bit since then.
Over the last approximate day (since midnight) price seems to be pushing back up and is threatening to break the resistance area again that it broke a couple of days ago. That resistance area held up several times going back to late August, price broke it on the 31st, then pulled back. Price reached the highs of the resistance area, and started pushing up again.
This looks decent, actually. The RSI is above 50 and is pushing up (on the 4 hour chart), and price is in the middle of the bands, pushing up off of the 20 MA. Dropping down to the 5 minute chart, and there’s more signs of strength. Price is hovering around the 20 MA and is off of the lower band. RSI, while it’s starting to slope down, is still above 50; so if price does make another push up, RSI should slope up with it. Overall, it looks to me like a mini pullback/retest.
I’m going to look for entries here and hopefully capture some pips!
GBP/AUD – Neutral
This is frustrating. I saw the rise up to that trendline I had drawn, so I put in an order. Price triggered my entry, a few minutes later, triggered my exit, and then from there pushed up to the trendline/my target. That didn’t happen today, it was a few days ago, but it’s so frustrating when that happens.
Price has dropped quite sharply from there, and has removed any bullish bias for me. Am I ready to short this though? Price has pushed down to the lower band and they’re just starting to expand (on the daily chart) and RSI has just pushed below 50 and is sloping down. There’s a bit of a rally off of the lows, so there could be entry opportunities there.
The bear rally on the 5 min. chart looks incredibly choppy, so I don’t want to trade it there, but it looks pretty smooth on the 2h/4h charts. I think I’m going to run the numbers here, too, and add an entry order if they make sense. But this is a longer-term play as I’m looking for entries on the 4h chart and targets on the daily.
The numbers aren’t there. Moving on to AUD/JPY
AUD/JPY – Short
This looks like it could be a good mean-reversion play. Starting on the 4h chart, price has pushed up over the last couple of days and reached a resistance area that was last reached in late September. Already, price seems to be pulling back off of that area, which is also coming off of the upper band. And RSI while it didn’t significantly get into overbought territory, it did touch the upper line and it’s now sloping downward.
Dropping down to the 5 min. chart, there’s a small bear-rally that’s formed, and it almost looks too quick to trade. However, those quick pauses are often great opportunities to get in. I’m going to run the numbers here and put in an order if my R:R makes sense!
EUR/AUD – Long
This looks promising for the opposite reason AUD/JPY looked promising. Also, I went to this chart while I still had the 5 min. timeframe selected and on the 5 min. chart it looks like a breakout to the upside is forming. I went up to the 2h chart to see how it’s moving there, and it still looks decent. Price is pushing up off of the lower band and RSI is coming out of oversold and heading up.
It’ll depend on my numbers obviously, but I’m going to look to put in a long order here.
I’m going to call it here. I’ve got 2 orders out there, so I’m just going to monitor those. I may revisit the charts if these two trades reverse on me, but I feel good about where I’m at.
Thanks for reading! Comment below what you thought about todays analysis. Whether you thought it was helpful, or saw something different, let me know. And stay tuned for more Forex trades and market analysis.