Welcome to today’s entry into my technical analysis trading blog. Today, I’m analyzing various Forex pairs for October 26th, 2023. Read on to see which pairs I think are good places to put my money, and which pairs I’m going to avoid.
Man, I’ve been tired lately. I, admittedly, haven’t been going to bed at a good time lately. So I’ve been waking up late and tired and then I do the same the next night and the cycle continues. I’d like to be a lot better about getting up earlier and getting to the computer earlier so I can do my pre-trading work more consistently. On the bright side, though, as a swing trader, I don’t need to be trading around the open, but I’d still like to.
Like I mentioned, I wasn’t able to do much pre-trading work this morning; but I’m ready to take a look at the highest-volume pairs and hopefully find some opportunity to make money
GBP/AUD – Long/Neutral
Pound-Aussie is the highest volume pair right now, and it’s somewhat interesting. I drew a longer-term and a shorter-term trendline on this chart last week, and price is trading between them. The current daily candle has wicks on either side, but is currently sitting right at the open, if slightly up.
Dropping down to the hourly chart, I could almost make a case for a bull-pullback; but the pullback was very deep and took out a couple of minor key areas. It seems to be trying to push back up, but this pullback makes me nervous. Price has made a bit of a base on the way back up and has already broken the area I would have wanted to get in at, so I probably missed this trade if I were to in fact take it long. I’ll hold off for now and maybe revisit if I don’t like anything else, hoping it hasn’t made a strong move by the time I get back to it.
GBP/NZD – Neutral
Pound-Kiwi has been up for most of the month, peaking at the beginning of this week and making a small pullback from there (on the daily chart). Yesterday, price bottomed out and made a decent push up, making this appear as a bull-pullback; but today, price isn’t holding on to the gains. It pushed up earlier this morning, but has pulled back since and is down on the day. That said, Price is off of the upper Bollinger Band and RSI is around 50 and pushing up.
Dropping down to the 1 hour chart, I was going to argue a long trade, but as I’ve been looking at it I don’t like it anymore. Last hour’s candle had a long lower shadow and a small body near the highs of the candle and until about 5 minutes ago the current candle was seemingly trying to push above that area. For the last few minutes, though, price has been dropping, and it now looks more like the up-move was a bearish retest.
Overall, I’m not ready to short this here, so I’ll just leave this alone for now.
GBP/JPY – Long
This is interesting. I’m pretty sure I put a long order out on Tuesday that I ended up cancelling because price ended up pushing back down into the prior range and didn’t hold on to the gains. At the beginning of this month, price trended up until roughly the 12th. Then price pulled back a bit — about half of the gains from the beginning of the month — and moved sideways from there. At the beginning of this week, price made another push up, reaching those prior highs, but again failed to hold on to those gains and pulled back to within that range.
Today, price pushed down enough to reach the lows of the range, but has been rallying from there. Right now, price is making new highs on the day. Dropping down to the hourly chart, after the pullback Tuesday, price moved sideways for the rest of the day before dropping again Wednesday morning a bit and moving sideways again. This morning, price has broken the resistance area that was created yesterday and is threatening the resistance area that was support on Tuesday.
This looks very strong right now, and I want to trade it long, I just have to wait a bit for an actual tradable move to happen to give me my entry, stop and target levels. I’m going to glance at other charts, but I’m going to keep returning to this one to look for entries.
GBP/CAD – Long/Neutral
This has largely been up since the end of September, though there was some sideways movement through the middle of this month. At the beginning of the week, price made another push up, taking out the highs of the sideways movment, but failed to hold on to the gains initially.
Today, price has made another strong push up, and with the Bands just starting to expand and RSI moving up and being around 50, looks like strength is coming back here. Dropping to the hourly chart and things get more interesting. The up-move today is very strong, and almost looks extended. It’s not quite overbought yet, but it was a fairly outsized move to the upside. I could see this making another push up, but how far, and whether or not it’d be a good trade is another story.
It’s not my favorite today, but it could be viable, so I’ll keep an eye on this.
EUR/JPY – Neutral
This has largely been moving sideways for the last couple of months. It dropped out of the lows of the range at the beginning of October and trended up from there, breaking out of the highs of the range earlier this week. From there, though, price made an equally as strong pullback and put price back to the prior range; though price has been hovering around the highs.
Dropping down to the hourly chart and all I see is more sideways movement; and, really, I’d argue more bearishness than bullishness. There’s not a lot of conviction in either direction here, plus there are a lot of key areas where price could stall even if I did get in, so I’ll leave this alone.
Thanks for reading! Let me know in the comments what you thought about this analysis and if you were able to capitalize on any of the movement. And stay tuned for more Forex market analysis and trades.