Welcome to another entry into my blog/journal. I’m analyzing the Forex market once again, this time for October 3rd, 2023. Read on to see how I feel about the currencies today and where I plan to put my money.
I ended up doing a late RSW yesterday, so I might not go as in-depth with my analysis this morning as I usually do.
USD – Long
This looks almost too strong this morning. Price has made another push up this morning, but on the daily chart has pushed into overbought territory. This is just the basket, though, so maybe there’s opportunity out there that’s not overbought quite yet. I’ll take a look and see what I can find.
CAD – Neutral/Short
I want to be bullish here, but the fact that it’s been down over the past few days gives me pause. On the other hand, though, this down move could simply be a pullback within a longer-term up-trend, but the pullback is quite deep. Today’s candle is showing a bit of a spinning top, which could indicate reversal to the upside; but price is also sitting pretty far off of the highs.
I’ll leave this alone for now and revisit tomorrow. Maybe, if I don’t see anything I love, I’ll take a look at CAD pairs to see if there’s opportunity out there.
Today’s Pairs
USD/CAD – Long
EUR/USD – Short
USD/CHF – Long
EUR – Neutral/Short
On the weekly chart, I could argue that this looks like some strength might be coming back and I should look for longs. On the daily chart, I could argue a low-base in a down-trend, and price is just sitting near the highs of the base. If you twisted my arm and forced me to pick a direction, I’d say short; but I wouldn’t be surprised at movement in either direction.
I kind of want to take a look at this short — if it is low-basing/retesting, it could be a good place to get in. But if strength is returning then I want to stay away (or at least have conviction in that direction). I think I’ll leave this alone for today and, similar to CAD, maybe look at this short if I don’t see anything else I like.
GBP – Neutral
I was bearish here yesterday, and today I’m seeing a bit of a roll over to the downside/low base. Price did break to new lows this morning, and is currently sitting near the highs of the day (and highs of the base) so that gives me some pause here. Also, RSI is oversold on the daily chart, which also gives me pause.
I guess I have a couple of reasons why not to be bearish here, and I don’t want to force anything, so I’ll stay away for today. I’ll revisit either later today if that’s something I end up doing, or tomorrow.
JPY – Neutral
This has made a pretty strong spike up this morning, and is now back into the range it was in prior to breaking the lows a couple weeks ago. I was worried this would happened, so I stayed away. And now that it has, it’s further proof that I should stay away. We’ll see how this plays out in the coming days, but I don’t think I’ll be trading this for a while.
AUD – Short
Price has made a strong push down this morning, taking out a couple of support areas that formed in the mini up-trend that occurred over the last couple of weeks. This looks enough, to me, to suggest any upward movement is over and price is returning to the downside.
The RSI is just crossing below 50, and price is just off of the lows, so there could be some really good entry opportunities. I’ll take a look at individual charts for Aussie weakness.
NZD – Neutral
This has made a strong push down this morning as well, but the up-trend prior was a lot stronger. Also, the push down here in Kiwi hasn’t really taken out any support areas and is in fact stalling at one right now. I don’t hate this to the short side, but there’s been a lot of chop, and a lot of recent strength, so I’ll hold off.
CHF – Neutral/Short
Price is making a bit of a bounce this week, but not with much conviction. On the daily chart, I’m seeing more of a bear rally than any indication that there’s further upside in it’s future. I would almost call this bearish movement, but price is still essentially in oversold levels.
I’m planning on looking at a couple other currencies with similar patterns — hoping that individual charts aren’t overbought/sold, so I should look at this short. I suppose I will, but I’ll make sure not to chase. And I have to pay attention to the spreads in CHF pairs because that could really throw off my trades.
Conclusion
Thanks for reading. I’ve got a decent amount of pairs to look at today, so I’m ready to dive in. Let me know in the comments what pairs you’re targeting today and stay tuned for more analysis and trades!