Welcome to my Trading/Investing blog and journal. Today, I’m analyzing the Forex market for October 2nd, 2023. Read on to see my thoughts on how the major currencies may move today.
Since I’ve been taking a longer-term approach to trading over the last couple of weeks, coupled with my earlier thought-process of looking for overnight moves, I’m starting my analysis later in the day today. It’s nearly 2:30 and I’m just getting started. Hopefully I can find some really good setups that make me money overnight.
USD – Long
Price made a nice push up last week, but dropped pretty significantly near the end of the week and closed closer to the open than the highs. Today, price has made another strong push up, and is at the highs of last week. Price looks a bit extended on the daily chart, but looks like it’s returning to the upside on the weekly chart. I just need to be cognizant of that when looking at individual charts.
CAD – Neutral
CAD’s price broke out of a pretty strong resistance area last week, but peaked and finished the week down. Today, price has opened the week down and doesn’t look like it’s returning to it’s strength quite yet. I’ll leave this alone for today and revisit tomorrow.
If, on the other hand, this makes a strong push up overnight and it does return to the upside, I’ve got some adjusting to do. I’ll start seriously entertaining the idea of fading the daily move and looking for trades in the opposite direction than the baskets are showing me. I’ll cross that bridge when/if I come to it, though.
EUR – Neutral
I was neutral on the Euro all last week because, despite being down over the last couple of months, I don’t technically see lower highs and lower lows (suggesting a downtrend) on the weekly chart. Starting out this week, price is showing more of the same, and it’s starting to seem like a bad idea to ignore it because of that technicality.
Price hasn’t quite reached the lows of last week yet, and the area price is currently hovering has been either support or resistance several times going back to April of 2020. There’s a lot of chop in this area, too, which gives me pause on trading this in either direction.
I think I’ll maintain my neutral outlook for today and see how this behaves overnight and into tomorrow.
GBP – Short
This has been dropping over the last month or so, but stalled a bit last week. On the daily chart, price has made a bit of a bear-rally, and today appears to be returning to the downside. It’s gotten down to the lows from last week, but hasn’t broken them yet, which could be a good place to enter trades. I’ll take a look at this short on individual charts.
JPY – Neutral
I’m putting a neutral rating on JPY largely because I’ve been burned by it too many times in the past. Price has been pushing down, hit a bottom, made a decent push up from there but then slowly rolled back to the downside. A couple weeks ago, price broke the lows that were created before the rally and has largely pushed down from there.
This week, though, price has opened with some strength; and has pushed up to the resistance area that was support when price bottomed out at the beginning of July. Looking in it’s history, this could either be a retest before price pushes back down, or it could make a significant push up throughout this week. I don’t love how individual charts have been playing out here, so I’ll hold off for today and maybe revisit tomorrow.
AUD – Neutral
While I could argue that this has officially started up-trending, there’s way too much chop for me to feel comfortable trading this today. Despite making new highs both two weeks ago and last week; both of those weekly candles have small bodies and pretty huge wicks on either side.
Today/this week, price has opened down fairly significantly which could signify a move in either direction. While a new up-trend has formed starting mid-August, this has been largely trending down since March ’22. Given the unclear overall direction and the large amounts of chop, I’m going to leave this alone for now.
NZD – Neutral
Here’s another currency that’s giving me pause this morning. While there’s been a lot of wild swings within the move, price has largely been down since December of last year. Between mid-August and (roughly) mid-September, price largely moved sideways, and over the last 2 weeks has made a VERY strong push up.
The push up took out a couple of resistance areas, but price is currently stalling at a key area that held up through much of last year. It looks like price may have reversed to the upside, but I’m not sure I’m ready to take that action quite yet. I think I’ll leave this alone for today and see how it plays out through the rest of the week.
CHF – Neutral
This peaked a little over a month ago and has been dropping since. Today, though, price has gapped up a bit and is making a bit of a push up. Price had been strong for over a year prior to this large drop, so this up-move could be a continuation of that. On the other hand, though, this could also just be a bit of a bear rally before price pushes back down.
Again, since I could argue both directions here, I’m going to leave it alone until it’s more clear which direction this is trending.
Conclusion
Thanks for reading! What did you think of today’s analysis? Let me know in the comments below. And stay tuned for more Forex analysis, and breakdowns of trades that I make.