Welcome to my trading analysis blog & journal. Join me today as I analyze the Forex market for September 28th, 2023.
I originally planned on doing an afternoon analysis yesterday, looking for an overnight trade. But I failed. I ended up not looking at all. That may be good, though — I’m looking at USD and it looked like something I would’ve traded long yesterday, but as of this morning, it’s pulling back off of the highs. Who knows how things would have played out.
It’s now Thursday morning, though and I only have one trade in for the week. I’ve had a protein shake and am going to get coffee soon, I meditated, and now I’m ready to dive in to the baskets and look for some great trading opportunities.
USD – Long
This is pulling back off of the highs, but it still looks strong. Price broke out of a pretty strong resistance area earlier in the week, and this pullback might be a good place to look for entries. I’ll take a look at individual USD charts.
CAD – Long
This is also pulling back off of the highs over the last several hours, but over the last 4 weeks, has been very strong. Price is down on the day, but, again, that could be the “momentum building” movement needed to find a great trading setup. The basket’s RSI is pushing up, too, is above 50 and not overbought yet, so a lot of signs point to strength. I’ll take a look at individual charts here, too.
EUR – Neutral
I mentioned on Monday that while this is on a multi-week pullback, on the weekly chart, price has yet to show a lower high, qualifying a downtrend. It has on the daily chart, but not the weekly. Which puts me in a tough spot. On one hand, this has been pushing down steadily for over a month, which would suggest weakness. But on the other hand, price has reached a strong key area in this downward movement, and price could continue it’s uptrend (starting July 2022) from here.
I think I’ll continue to leave this alone since I don’t have a strong feeling one way or the other. I’m looking for great setups. I’ll revisit if I don’t see anything else I like this week, otherwise I’ll wait until next week to see what this does.
GBP – Neutral/Long
This peaked about a month ago, and has been dropping ever since. Similar to EUR, I don’t see lower highs and lower lows on the weekly chart yet, so a downtrend hasn’t technically formed. Unlike EUR, though, the drop here has been nigh vertical. It’s been such a strong push down, in fact, that I’m having a hard time seeing lower highs and lower lows. They’re there, but it’s not clean or clear.
Price is making a small bounce this week, and it’s oversold on the daily chart; but I’m not sure it’s enough for me to consider trading this long. I’ll take a look at individual charts to the long side, but I’ll make sure any GBP pairs are a lower priority and I’ll do my best not to chase.
JPY – Neutral
Yen is really frustrating me lately. It’s been pushing down, but doing so incredibly slowly. And within the down push price tends to bounce fairly quickly. After breaking to new lows last week, price has started moving sideways again, making that low a pretty strong support level.
Maybe this is fear speaking, but every time JPY seems to make a push down, it only does so a little bit and then rallies. I’ve been stopped out of a JPY trade 4 times, I think, over the last couple of weeks, so I’m going to leave this alone for now. I’ll revisit when/if it gains some volume behind the moves.
AUD – Neutral
This has largely been pushing down for about a year-and-a-half, but has had some extremely strong spikes within the push down. Price bottomed out about 6 weeks ago, and has been pushing up since then. And I can see a couple clear higher swing highs and swing lows.
This week, price seems to be struggling to meaningfully break a resistance area — price pulled back from that area. But the pullback wasn’t sustained, either and price is sitting closer to the highs of the week than the lows. I have a hard time wanting to short this here, given the strong moves that have been made in the past. I’ll leave this alone for now and revisit next week.
NZD – Neutral
Honestly, I don’t have a much different outlook today than I did on Monday. Price made a strong spike, taking out a couple of key areas — even forming some higher highs and higher lows. But overall it’s been trending down and I’m not sure I’m comfortable trading this long here.
I think I’ll just leave this alone for today and revisit next week.
CHF – Neutral
Similar to EUR and GBP, this has been strong for several months in a row, but made a top a few weeks ago and has pushed down strong from there. This push down has been strong enough that there aren’t lower highs and lower lows forming, so it may not be trending — price could stall at the support level it’s at right now and make another push back up.
Maybe I’m looking at things all wrong, and I should be looking at these short given the strength of the move. But I don’t have anyone to run these ideas by, so I have to stick with what I’m familiar with. I’m going to leave this alone for this week and revisit next week. Hopefully then the movement will be more clear, and I’ll be able to find some opportunity.
Conclusion
After going through all of the baskets, I’m starting to wonder if I should figure out some sort of fundamental strategy to add to my process. With the strong reversal moves that have happened in Euro, Pound, Aussie, Kiwi and Franc, there had to have been some sort of data point that came out that caused it.
I haven’t looked in to fundamentals yet because I don’t want to be distracted/confused (well, more distracted/confused), and let anything get in the way of trading price action. But knowing what’s going on outside of the charts might inform whether these reversals are sustained moves or retests before a continuation of the longer-term move. I don’t know how I’ll do it yet, but it’s something to think about.
Thanks for reading. Let me know in the comments what you thought about this analysis, and if you saw anything different. Also let me know if you’ve made any trades and capitalized on some nice price movement. And, as always, stay tuned for more trading analysis!