Alright, I need to get started. I’ve been procrastination all morning — I’ve been at my station since like 7:30, and I’m just now getting started at 8:15. I’m not feeling amazing, but how I feel doesn’t matter. I’ve got to work. I’m just going to dive in to the baskets and hope to find some opportunities this morning.
USD – Long
This had a strong drop over the last couple of days after reaching recent highs — though those recent highs took out a resistance area that held up since last November, essentially. Currently, price is sitting near that resistance area, and it’s acting as support now. Now that I’ve typed that out, I feel like strength is suggested in this basket, so I’m going to take a look at this long today, in the hopes that the break of that resistance area meant something significant.
CAD – Neutral
This has made a nice spike up this morning, but it’s still well within the range it’s been in and there’s a lot of chop in the recent past. I could see a lot of fakeouts in play here, so I’ll hold off this morning.
EUR – Neutral
This did end up making a pretty strong rally yesterday, breaking the key area and rallying up to near the highs of the prior range it had been trading in. I took a shot here yesterday, actually, and ended up breaking even on that trade. Looking at the basket today, from those highs, price has pushed down strong back to the lows of that prior range.
Could this just be a pullback? If so, it’s very deep and not tradable to my eye. And if this is a return to the downside, I’m going to need to see a reversal pattern develop on at least the 4 hour chart; which hasn’t happened as this has just been dropping.
I’m going to leave this alone for today, and revisit this afternoon if I do a late-day RSW. Otherwise, I’ll check in next week.
Today’s Pairs
USD/JPY – Long
USD/CHF – Long
GBP/JPY – Long
GBP/CHF – Long
GBP – Long/Neutral
Yesterday, price did rally enough to push up out of that range that I saw. I thought the morning move was extended, and it wouldn’t push up much more, but clearly I was wrong. I may have missed an opportunity somewhere. It’s fine, though, because there’s no way, really, to tell if I missed anything and it’d be even more difficult to determine whether I’d capitalize on said move. I just gotta keep pushing forward.
Anyway, this morning, price is largely dropping, but it’s staying above the highs of the prior range. This could be a retest, and might look good on individual charts. I’ll take a look at this long this morning, hoping it does, in fact, bounce off of support.
JPY – Short/Neutral
If I’m looking at GBP long, I think I have to look at this short. This pushed down through it’s strong support level yesterday, and made a new 2-month low. Today, price has rallied this morning, but seems to be stalling at that same key area. If this bounces off of that area as a retest, it’s got a decent amount of room to drop. I’ll look at this short today, while trying not to chase.
AUD – Neutral
This has steadily been pushing up over the last couple of weeks, but this week, price made it back into a range that occurred during the first 2 weeks of this month. The highs of this range is at the same level as an area that acted as support during some range-bound action between late April and early June.
Price, seemingly, has tried to make a push up. But every time it does, there’s a fairly strong pullback. There’s long upper wicks today and yesterday, as well as within the range from the early weeks of August. I want to be bullish here, but up-moves aren’t sustained, so I’m going to hold off — I don’t want to get faked out.
NZD – Neutral
This has largely been range-bound over the last couple of weeks, and is showing no signs of doing anything differently in the near future. Price pushed to the highs of this range yesterday, but dropped throughout the day; and today, price has gotten somewhat close to the highs of this range, and has even made a push down a bit, but is currently sitting right at the open.
I don’t see much conviction in either direction here, so I’ll hold off.
CHF – Short/Neutral
This has made a fairly sizable drop this morning, even taking out a strong support level that’s held up for a couple of weeks. I don’t see a reversal move per-se, but this is a strong drop that took out a key area. Potentially, a reversal move has happened on an individual chart, so I’ll take a look at this short; while, again, doing my best not to chase.
As always, thanks for reading! I hope this analysis was helpful, and if not, let me know why in the comments. Have a good Labor Day weekend, and stay tuned for more financial market trades and analysis.