Welcome to my trading journal where I document my analysis and trades within the Forex (an other) markets.
I’m not having a great morning. I don’t know why. Nothing happened (really.. I lost a trade last night, but I don’t think that’s it), I got up early, I even tried to meditate a bit, but I’m not feeling good. Just more anger and anxiety with no reasons and no direction. Just keep swimming. All I can do is work, put one foot in front of the other, and get myself prepared for any opportunities that may arise.
With that in mind, there’s nothing else to do but to dive in to the charts.
USD – Short
This has been quite strong for about a month-and-a-half; and yesterday it looked like it was going to break out to the upside and make a run. It made a run alright, but it did so strong to the downside. There was a bit of a rally at the end of the day yesterday, making a lower high, but all morning, this has been dropping again.
Currently, price is sitting on a pretty strong support level that held up during the recent uptrend, as well as for a bit back in May, so if it breaks that level, it might push down. Yes, overall, this is probably technically up-trending, but on the 4 hour chart, it looks like a power reversal to me, so I’m comfortable looking at this short.
CAD – Neutral
This made a pretty strong push down this morning, but even in the basket it looks like an outsized move. Price is sitting near the lows of the range it’s been in for a while, but there is a bit more room before the actual bottom. My initial thought was to look at this short, since it is near those lows, but on second thought, it looks like I’d be shorting in to key areas, which I don’t want to do, so I’m going to hold off.
EUR – Long
I’m having some issues here this morning. Price was in a sideways move for a while that got broken to the downside over about 2 days. That down-move bottomed out about a week ago, and price has steadily been pushing back up from there. Over the last couple of days, price has been stalling at that key area that were the lows of the sideways move; with price wicking fairly strong into that area yesterday.
Today’s Pairs
EUR/USD – Long
AUD/USD – Long
NZD/USD – Long
EUR/JPY – Long
AUD/JPY – Long
NZD/JPY – Long
Notice I said wicking, though, as price pulled back from there and ended up closing below that area. The up-trend, and the break of a key level suggests I should look at this long, but the fact that it’s having trouble breaking a key area suggests I should leave it alone. I think I will take a cautious look at this long, and do my best not to chase.
GBP – Neutral
Here’s another one that’s giving me some issues this morning. Price pushed down off of the recent highs last week, and has largely been moving sideways from there. Price pushed to the lows of the range yesterday, but has made an equally strong up-move this morning, and price is near the highs of the range.
Overall, this up-move looks extended here, and it doesn’t look like it really wants to break this area, so I’m going to leave this alone for today.
JPY – Short
This never really broke out yesterday — it just barely pushed through the lows of the range it’s been in, but it rallied from there. This morning, price is making another push down, and even with the short rally it’s on right now, price is still below the lows of that range.
The next level of support, in the basket, isn’t very far away, but I’d like to see what this looks like on individual charts. I’ll look at this short again this morning.
AUD – Long
I was bullish here yesterday, took a shot and lost a trade. That trade did end up pushing up, though, and that’s evident in the basket. Price pushed up yesterday getting to the middle of a range that was created earlier this month; and today, price is making another push up and has gotten closer to the highs. If this is going to remain strong, I want to capitalize, so I’ll take a look.
NZD – Long
This has, overall, been trending down. But over the last approximate week, price has made a higher high, a higher low and today is making a higher high. Additionally, I can see a bit of a double-bottom that’s formed.
All that was on the daily chart and, dropping to the 4 hour chart, price has made a new high outside of resistance and there’s a good amount of room to the next resistance area. This looks strong, so I’ll take a look at this long today.
CHF – Neutral
This still appears to be staying within it’s range, and I could even argue that it’s running out of upward momentum. The last 3 trading days have shown wicks up to the highs of the range, but the candles have closed within the middle-to-lows of the range.
I don’t see much conviction here in either direction, so I’ll hold off this morning.
Thanks for reading another daily analysis. Let me know your thoughts on my analysis in the comments, and if you saw anything I may have missed. Stay tuned for more Forex trades and analysis!