Forex Market Analysis | August 23, 2023

I didn’t trade on Monday or Tuesday, opting to work on the Blog instead, so I need to get after it today. I’m a little late this morning — it’s already 8:15 — but that’s alright. It’ll give the market some breathing room before I actually look to pull any triggers.

I feel alright. I wish I was more confident still, but I’m alright. Looking through the past couple of weeks of my trades, I haven’t been doing as bad as I’ve been telling myself I’ve been doing, so that’s good. I’m not quite ready to up my risk amount, but I’m getting close.

Maybe, starting in September, I’ll start actually trading 1% or 2% per trade; especially if the blog is fully updated by then and I’m just posting the prior day’s work. Confidence isn’t going to come by not taking risks, so I think that’s something I’ll do. Without further ado, though, I’m ready to dive in to the baskets.

USD – Neutral

Overall, this is still pretty strong, but over the last 5 days, has been moving sideways with long upper and lower wicks. Looking at the 4h chart, price is range-bound, and while there was a decent spike earlier this morning, price didn’t quite get up to the highs, and as of right now, price is pulling back. I don’t think this is going to break out today — and it would have to do an extended, non-tradable move to do so — so I’ll hold off for now.

EUR – Short

This is an interesting one this morning. Price dropped strong at the beginning of the day (around midnight) but that drop stalled, and price has been rallying for most of the morning. Both of these moves look a bit extended in the basket, but if this is a bear rally, it could be a great trading opportunity. I’m going to take a look at this on individual charts, hoping for similar patterns, without them being extended.

GBP – Neutral

This made a strong drop this morning, after being overall up since late July. That said, price hasn’t made a lower high yet, so, while this was a sizable drop, price action hasn’t moved in a way that suggests a reversal. I don’t see a strong indicator of movement in either direction here, so I’ll hold off for now and see how it’s moving either later today or (more likely) tomorrow.

JPY – Long

This has largely been weak over the last few months, but since the beginning of August, has shown a lot of sideways movement. With a lot of wild swing in between. Last week, price was hovering around the lows of the range and looked like it was threatening to break but this week, price spiked to the middle of the range, pushed back down to the lows, and today has made a large push back up to Monday’s highs.

This isn’t trending, really, in either direction, and the breakouts of these middle key areas haven’t really held — and I technically don’t have a range-bound strategy, so I’m going to hold off here for today.

Update: After finishing RSW, I didn’t see anything that I liked Long, so I revisited other baskets. When I came back to this one, it was pushing out above the key area it looked to be stalling at. Since it did break that resistance area, I’ll look at this long — so this will be my long play today. If I don’t see anything here this morning, I’ll take a pause on trading for a few hours and try to revisit this afternoon, looking for, maybe, overnight opportunities.

AUD – Neutral

This based a couple of weeks ago, dropped quite strong through that base last week, and since the end of last week/over the last ~4 days, has been rallying. Price, this morning, has gotten up to the lows of the base from a couple of weeks ago, but doesn’t not seem able to make any strong pushes back up to within that area. This has made higher highs and higher lows since bottoming out last week, so technically, I shouldn’t look at this short right now even though I’m bearish.

I want to make sure I’m timing my trades better — it’s not just about being right, it’s about being right at the right time. I’m doing my best to avoid getting stopped out of a trade, just for the pair to ultimately make a move in my favor and reach my target. So, I’m going to hold off for now and revisit tomorrow.

NZD – Neutral

A couple of weeks ago, this pushed down through a strong key area and looked very weak. Since the beginning of this week, though, price has been rallying and has made higher highs and higher lows. Similar to AUD, this overall looks weak, and I’d call myself bearish, but as of right now, price is up too much for me to be comfortable shorting it.

CHF – Neutral

This has been quite strong for a couple of months, but has been moving sideways over the last roughly 6 trading days. Today, while price is up on the day, the highs are still a little off of the highs of the range, and it’s already pulling back from those highs. If this were to break out, it could make for a great long trade, but it’s a little far away from that right now.

That said, it’s the only thing I like to the up side at all today, so maybe I’ll make a bit of an exception and look at this long on individual charts. Maybe one of those is ready to break out. I’m going to do one more glance at the other baskets to see if there’s something else I might long, but if not, I’ll look at CAD and EUR vs this and, maybe, just not trade today despite trying. We’ll see.

Thanks for reading! Staying connected with fellow traders can offer fresh perspectives. Share your views on this analysis in the comments, and don’t forget to check back for more trading insights.