Welcome to my trading journal and blog where I give my opinions about various markets, and discuss the trades that I make. Lately, I’ve been primarily focused on the Forex market, and this is my analysis of said market for August 16th. Read on to see how I believe each currency will move today.
How I’m feeling: Anxious. Both happy with the amount of work I did yesterday and upset with the result of my trade — I thought it was a good one… And I’m a little tired. IDK, I’m just trying to put down how I feel so I can reflect on it later, but really, I feel the same as I have for the last several months, maybe years.
I just need to continue to do and remain calm and focused, realize I can’t change the past and the future hasn’t happened yet and just do the best I can today. Even thinking about it starts to raise my anxiety…. I can do it, though! Let’s get to work!
USD – Long
This dipped overnight after making a spike at the end of the day yesterday, but subsequently made a nice push upward and got back up to near those highs. Currently, there’s a bit of a stall in the basket, so I’ll definitely see what this looks like on individual charts to the long side.
CAD – Neutral
This is still trading within the range it was yesterday. Actually, throughout the day yesterday, this largely fell nearly pushing out of that range, but price rallied and it’s back up to within the middle. I don’t see a clear indication of movement in either direction, so I’ll hold off here.
EUR – Neutral
This almost looks tradable — it’s in a nice sideways move right now, that could be a good place for a breakout trade — bit it’s not quite there yet. Given the trend, I would look to trade this long, and price is sitting a bit too far off of the highs for me to want to do that right now, and even if it were threatening to break out, the next level is pretty close. I’ll hold off here for today and revisit, hopefully, when it looks like it’s ready to break out and make a significant move.
GBP – Long
This made a spike overnight and had a really good push up out of a pretty strong resistance area. Price continued up for the next few hours, but the most recent candle (on the 4h chart) isn’t holding on to the gains right now. This could be the end of the move, or it could be building more momentum to make another push up. I’m going to hope for the latter and look for some long trades here.
Today’s Pairs
AUD/USD – Short
NZD/USD – Short
GBP/AUD – Long
GBP/NZD – Long
JPY – Neutral
I traded this short yesterday because it had broken to a new low and was only up a bit off of that low at the time. If price were to push down, I would have loved it short. Since then, though, price has made a higher high and with a pullback overnight has made a higher low. The current candle is making a bit of a push up right now, and is a ways higher than that new recent low, not to even mention the “breakout” area low that occurred the night before.
I’m still overall bearish here, but it doesn’t look like it’ll be viable today, so I’ll hold off. That said, maybe since it’s up right now, it’ll fade later and it is a good short play right now, but I don’t have a “fading” strategy, so, again I’ll hold off. Maybe I’ll take a look at a couple JPY charts if I end up not liking anything else I see today.
AUD – Short
This made a new swing low yesterday evening, but started spiking shortly after. That spike stalled at a prior key area, then price pushed back down to near those lows through the night and this morning. Currently, price is up a little but seems to be struggling around the support area that was created with the drop yesterday evening. Price is still a little off of the bottom that was created, but if it breaks this support area, I like it to fall quite a bit. I’ll take a look at this on individual charts.
NZD – Short
Similar to AUD, this pushed to a new low yesterday evening and spiked shortly after. The difference here, though, is that price ended up taking out a level that was prior support as well as a level that was prior resistance and made a new swing high. It did drop from there, but the spike was a lot stronger than I’m comfortable with, and right now, price is hovering around the level that acted as support back on the 14th and most of the 15th — which is well off of the lows.
I was going to say that I’ll leave this alone today, but given the fact that it’s hovering around the lows of a support area and there is room for this to run before the lows that were made yesterday, I will look at this short. I’ll just be cautious about it.
CHF – Neutral
After spiking yesterday and then retesting price has failed to regain any of the strength it had. While technically not making a lower swing low first (two candles have the same lows), it’s definitely made a lower swing high and is in the process of making a lower low. There’s a bit of a rally in the current candle, but price doesn’t seem to be able to hold it’s gains — it’s also sitting off of the lows of the day, so the weakness isn’t really there either. There’s not a lot of conviction in either direction, so I’m going to hold off here.
Thanks for reading. Let me know in the comments what you thought about this analysis and if you saw anything different!