I’m a little late this morning, so I’m just going to dive in.
USD – Long
This has made a pretty strong push up this morning, taking out the resistance area that held up last week. I was just looking at the hourly chart, though, and looking at the daily chart, it looks like price has reached a stronger resistance area that held up back in late May and in March. I’ll look at this long, with the assumption being that individual charts might not have that same resistance area, so the long play will still work, but I’ll be cautious
CAD – Long
This has made a decent push up this morning as well, and is also stalling at some resistance from a couple of months ago. This looks closer to breaking out in it’s basket, though, and there’s a good amount of room between this resistance area and the next one, so I’ll take a look at this long today.
EUR – Neutral
This is a prime example of why I’m having such a hard time. Price has been trending upward all year, and has been stronger over the last couple months. There was a bit of a shakeout at the end of July, but since then, there’s been more strength. Friday, price peaked and pulled back, and price is down today a bit, and it looks to me like a perfect bull-pullback/bullish retest. I like this to the long side, but I don’t want to trade it until it’s pushing up again. But at the same time, if I look for longs now, there’s a higher profit available. Also, maybe a higher probability of it working since I’m “fading” the opening move. On the other hand, though, that kind of negates the analysis I had in USD and CAD… For right now, trading, I’m going to leave it alone, then when I’m finished with my work for the morning, I’ll revisit this and see how it has behaved. Maybe I’ll add it to my Longs, but more likely, I’ll look to take this long later in the week. We’ll see how it looks.
Today’s Pairs
NZD/USD – Short
NZD/CAD – Short
GBP/NZD – Long
EUR/JPY – Long
GBP – Long
This morning, price made a new recent high, and it was the highest price has reached since sometime in 2016. It’s since pulled back, but not very strongly, and is somewhat hovering around the recent highs. I’ll definitely look at this long this morning, and see how it’s playing out on individual charts.
JPY – Neutral
This gives me the same thoughts that EUR gave me, but in the opposite direction (and it’s not as clean). Price seems to be failing it’s upward moves around this support area, though, so it could make for a good short, but here in it’s basket, it’s a bit off of the lows of this range. I think, like EUR, I’ll hold off for right now. Actually, I’ll look at EUR/JPY, but this will be the only pair I’ll look at involving these two currencies.
AUD – Short/Neutral
This has been in a bit of a low base since the beginning of this month, and I can even see a bit of a rounded top to the downside. Today, price at some point reached new recent lows, but has rallied off of those lows. Price has, actually, continually failed at the level it did today before the rally, so even if price gets back to that area, there’s a good chance it won’t break. I might be trying to disqualify this because I don’t want to look at too many pairs this morning, but either way, I think I’m going to leave it alone. It’s rallied more as I’ve typed this as well. I’ll set an alert to revisit this if it gets back to those lows, but otherwise I’ll hold off. We’ll see how it behaves this week, I’ll probably trade it later.
NZD – Short
This broke a pretty strong support area last Thursday, continued down on Friday and looks to be largely down again today. Price is rallying a bit off of the lows of the day right now, but that just might be enough on individual charts to create tradable moves. I’ll definitely look at this to the short side this morning.
CHF – Neutral
This broke out of the range it had been in for the last several weeks, but has failed to hold on to the gains. Price has pulled back a good amount this morning, and looking at the hourly chart, is far enough off of the highs that I don’t want to trade it long today. It gives me a bit of pause about my other analyses this morning, but that’s neither here nor there. I think I’m going to hold off on CHF for today, and revisit when it gets back to near the highs. It also suggests that I should do my basket analysis on more than just the daily chart each day, but that’s something I can visit later.
Trading is all about learning and sharing insights, so feel free to share your thoughts on this analysis in the comments below!