Welcome to my blog where I share my trading journal, my thoughts on the Forex markets and the trades I take myself. After my morning analysis I thought I saw a nice bull-pullback in GBP/CHF, but price ended up faking me out. Read on to see how this trade played out.
I’m updating this on 8/25. It was a swing trade, so I let it run, and then unfortunately neglected to journal it shortly after it closed. Knowing how I trade, I’m essentially going to analyze this in hindsight, talking about what I assumed I saw at that time.
Entry
Starting on the 4h chart, price bottomed out a few days prior (on the 3rd) and had steadily been pushing up from there. Price made a couple higher highs and higher lows, and price was hovering around a key level that held up as resistance between the 20th – 28th of July; and as support from then until August 3rd. A break of that level could mean a nice move to the upside.
Entry – 1.11625
Stop – 1.1155
Target – 1.11775
R:R – 2:1
Dropping down to the 15 minute chart, a reversal move starting earlier that morning can be argued, but it’s not what I traded. Price made a low, then started pushing back up, making a higher high and then a higher low. Price started pushing up from this higher low, which created a good looking bull-pullback pattern. I set an entry order on the break of the new higher high and my stop at the new higher low.
Exit
Price made a small push in my favor, but never got anywhere near 1R. After about an hour, price reversed and started pushing down, and a couple hours after that fell enough to hit my stop-loss.
Looking today, I can see a couple of place where I made some mistakes here. First of all, I can see the beginning of a reversal move even on the 4h chart. The trend wasn’t clearly up, it was just up against a key level. Secondly, where I took the trade on the 15 minute chart, there was a pretty clear down-trend that had formed in it’s recent history, which should’ve disqualified my bullish bias.
Unfortunately, though, I was being impatient and just trying to get some trades in, so I think I ignored some signs that disqualified the trade. That’s why we’re here, though: to learn from our mistakes and to get better going forward. And that’s what I plan to (continue to) do.
Thanks for reading! Let me know what you thought about this trade in the comments below, or if you found a better opportunity today. Stay tuned for more trades and analysis.