Welcome back to my trading blog where I discuss my analysis of the Forex and Stock markets, and walk you through the trades I’ve taken each day and week.
I was having a tough time getting motivated this morning, but I’m doing my best to remain disciplined, so I had to get to work. I saw a couple of potential opportunities this morning, and I ended up getting 2 trades in. Here’s how they went.
AUD/USD – Short
Once again, the first thing I looked at (today being AUD/USD) looked like the most promising chart. Instead of diving right in, though, I took a look at the zoomed-out charts in the other pairs I pulled out, too. At initial glance, those didn’t look as good, so I came back to look for a pattern and run the numbers.
I could see a rally that didn’t seem to be holding on the 2h chart, but wanted to see what it looked like on lower time frames. Before doing that, though, I picked a target. On the 15 min. chart, price made a nice re-test rally above the most recent resistance area and was pushing back to the downside. I found an entry and stop level, and with my target there was a 2.7 R:R, so I put my entry below the resistance area it broke that has now become support. Now we monitor and wait.
Price pushed down a bit, but never enough to break the next support area and push me into meaningful profit. It hovered around that area for a bit, eventually making a sizable spike and triggering my exit.
EUR/AUD – Long
EUR/AUD was another one that looked very good to me all morning, but the opportunity wasn’t quite there this morning (it’s now 10:15). Price has been strong for several days, and this morning bumped up against a resistance area that looked like a strong breakout point. Price bounced off of that level twice and pulled back, but the pullbacks were all too deep and the R:R wasn’t there. A few minutes ago, though, price did push up enough to break that level and closed above it on the 5 min. chart.
Price made a short pullback, but didn’t break back below that resistance — now support area. I ran the numbers and initially had only a 1.2 R:R, but the breakout looked very clean and I wanted to get in, so I upped my take-profit to a 2R:R; which didn’t look out of the question, just wasn’t the very next strong resistance area. Maybe I got impatient and took this trade prematurely. We’ll see how it plays out.
Price pushed up just enough to trigger me in to the trade, but that’s as high as it pushed. From there, price dropped over the next several minutes stopping me out for a full loss.
Update: 10:30
I saw in my watchlist that AUD/USD had pushed down and would be somewhat in profit if I was still in the trade, so I looked at the chart again. Price pushed down to the “second” support area (the one I traded above but hoped it’d break), and started trading sideways from there. With that small base, I put an entry order on the break of that support level, 1 pip below to “confirm” the break.
Once again, my initial reward target wasn’t quite at 2R, so I adjusted it some to make my R:R. I think that was okay in this trade, though, because the pip amounts are only 4 for the stop and 10 for the target. It hasn’t triggered yet, but if price pushes meaningfully above my stop/closes above that area, I’ll cancel the order.
Price did end up pushing up and closing above my would-be-stop, but it wasn’t a strong push up, so I left my trade open — the break of that support area was too good, in my mind, to pass up. That said, price never did push through that level, it bounced off of it again, and volume slowed a lot so I did end up cancelling it. Just not at the initial up-move.
Thanks for reading! Slowly but surely I’m getting back to the consistency I had pre-Covid, and with that will come the returns. Stay tuned if you’d like to continue to be updated on my journey and let me know in the comments if you have any questions or feedback!