I need to get to work. I’ve just been sitting here for 10 min. just fucking frustrated. WTF! But I’m disciplined, so I’m going to dive in..
USD has a news event this morning, but USD, right now, looks like one of the better options to trade — plus, being the US Dollar, doesn’t what affects us affect, in some way, all currencies? Maybe not, but I’m still going to take a look at USD despite the news. If I’m right, the news event could cause an outsized move, and if I’m wrong, I should only lose as much as I expect to, so I’m good with that.
USD – L – This has been strong for a couple of weeks now, and overnight made a strong push up, and made it to a pretty strong key level. Right now (I’m on a 2h chart) price is on a decent pullback, but that might make for entry opportunities. I’ll take a look at this long on individual charts.
CAD – L – This made a decent push up yesterday afternoon and through the evening and overnight, moved sideways. There’s a level of resistance (that was support then) from earlier this month that price is stalled at, but if it can break this level, it should be able to make a strong push up. I’ll take a look at this on individual charts.
EUR – L – This has been kind of unruly lately. Yesterday, I called out a fairly strong drop with a subsequent rally back to those highs, but through yesterday price moved sideways, then dropped about 50% of the prior drop, and then overnight has been pushing up again and has broken out above those previous highs. On one hand, this does look like it’s breaking out to the upside today and could make a decent run, but on the other hand, this has made fairly sizable drops each day, too, so it’s hard to say. That said, this is just the basket, informing my direction and the individual charts is where I place my trades, so I’ll take a look at this on individual charts. I need to make sure not to do anything with it if it’s extended, though.
Today’s Pairs
AUD/USD – Short
AUD/CAD – Short
EUR/AUD – Long
AUD/JPY – Short
NZD/USD – Short
NZD/CAD – Short
EUR/NZD – Long
NZD/JPY – Short
GBP – N – This definitely looked weak yesterday, but price didn’t break to the lows and instead based for most of the day and ended up rallying by last night/overnight. Price pushed above a couple prior key levels and made a new swing high, but as of right now, has pulled back through some of those key levels it had taken out. I see a good amount of chop here, especially around the levels it’s trading at now, so I’m going to hold off on GBP.
JPY – L – On one hand, this made a huge drop over the last few days, after making an outsized spike up early last week. I don’t know what happened there, but price made some wild swings, then pulled back taking out several key levels and making a new low in roughly a month. Since then, though, price has largely moved sideways, and overnight made a fairly strong (not relative to the previous moves) push up and took out recent resistance areas.
Right now, price has pulled back some and looks to be retesting the levels from yesterday, which looks to me like a power-reversal back to the upside — but with how much it’s dropped over the last few days, I’m not sure I’m comfortable trading this long. Fuck it. I’ll take a look at this long on individual charts today and eliminate pairs quickly when their charts aren’t that pretty. And I’m not going to feel overwhelmed.
AUD – S – This has pushed down strong overnight after rallying most of the day yesterday; but this drop has taken back nearly everything it gained yesterday. Right now, price is stalling on a support level, with a decent amount of room below for this to fall. Couple that with the fact that it’s on a small rally, and this could make for a good short. I’ll take a look at individual charts.
NZD – S – This is tough. I kind of want to disqualify it, and I think that’s just so that I have fewer pairs to look at. But if this is where the move happens; well, I wouldn’t be upset, because I probably wouldn’t know, but I want to put myself in the best positions, so I should look at it.
For the last 2 days, price made a decent push up, after trending down for 2 weeks, and made a new recent high. From there, though, it started to roll over to the downside, and it took out a couple prior resistance areas. Right now, price is in a base, though as I type this, price seems to be wanting to break to the upside. With the way it rolled over, though, I’m bearish. It’s pretty far off of the breakout point now, in the basket, but I’ll see what it looks like on individual charts.
CHF – N – This has largely been moving sideways over the last nearly 2 weeks. Over the last several hours — through yesterday afternoon and overnight — price has made a bit of a rally, but isn’t really near a breakout point. Truthfully, with how much this has been ranging, I can’t discern a breakout point. I’ll leave this alone until it has conviction in one direction or the other — or until I implement a range-bound trading strategy.