Welcome to my Forex trading blog. Today, I’ve got another analysis of the major currencies, along with a trade that was a nice winner. Read on for that as well as my thoughts and market analysis.
I unfortunately had to take yesterday off, being in Michigan, but I’m able to get to work today. I had to take my aunt to the airport this morning, so I was worried I’d get back late, but I’m right on time.
There’s a USD news event at 9 this morning, so I’m going to wait until 9:15 – 9:30 to actually pull the trigger anywhere, and I’ll actually just not even look at USD right away — the news event will cause any patterns I happen to see to become invalid. I’ll revisit it, maybe, around 9:30. Even not trading USD, I’m going to wait to pull any triggers because news events can affect all currencies.
I feel okay. Had anxiety earlier, but it’s subsiding a bit. Working is helping, actually looking at my computer and doing productive things. Hopefully I can push through and continue to have a good day. Let’s get started.
CAD – Long
This has been pushing up for the last week or so, and on the 4 hour chart, is on a pullback over the last day. Price has stalled at a key level that’s held up a few times over the last couple of weeks. Following the trend, I’ll take a look at this long off of the bounce of support.
EUR – Short
This has been pushing down for over a week, save for a sizable rally at the end of last week. Since then, though, price has come down pretty hard, and this morning is sitting on a support area that’s been both support and resistance over the last month or so. If price pushes through this level, there’s a good amount of room to the next support level, so I’ll look at this short.
GBP – Neutral
Overall, this has looked weak, but has been moving sideways over the last 1.5 days. On top of that, I could argue both an up-trend and a down-trend here, so I’m not clear on directionality. I’ll leave this alone for today, and see how it performs tomorrow.
Today’s Pairs
EUR/CAD – Short
CAD/JPY – Long
AUD/CAD – Short
JPY – Short/Neutral
This looks okay, but probably not super viable today. It’s been trending down since the beginning of the month, had a huge drop at the end of last week, and rallied a bit yesterday. Price has seemed to return to the downside overnight and this morning, but it’s not dropping with conviction, and price is sitting on what I’d call a minor key area. I could see more weakness here, but it’s not incredibly “pretty”, so I’ll glance at this short, but I won’t chase.
AUD – Short/Neutral
This is a bit complicated as it’s been moving sideways over the last month+. Overnight, price pushed up to the resistance area that’s been the highs of this sideways move, and has been dropping from there. Technically the short-term trend is up, but this is in a range, so I’m actually expecting this to continue it’s weakness over the next several hours. I’m not a range-trader, though, I’m a trend-trader, so I’m a bit apprehensive about trying to trade this. I’ll look at this short, but I’ll be cautious about it.
NZD – Neutral
This has been weak for nearly 2 weeks, with some wild swings in between. Since the end of last week, though, price has been on a fairly strong rally, that puts this in a short-term up-trend. This has been so weak, though, and price is stalling at a strong key level, so I’m not very comfortable trading this long. I’ll leave it alone for now, and revisit tomorrow.
CHF – Neutral
This had been incredibly strong for over a month, but since the middle of last week, has been moving sideways. I might even consider it a small down-trend starting then. Price mad a pretty sharp pullback last week, reached a support/resistance area, rallied about 75% back to the highs, but dropped from there, back to the same support/resistance area. There appears to be a bit of a rounded bottom at that area, with price potentially ready to push up again, but since the prior week’s trend has largely been down, a long play gives me pause here. I think I’ll hold off for now and wait for more, clear, strength.
Trade – EUR/CHF – Short
I looked at a these charts, and didn’t see anything that I loved, so, remembering that CHF had also been strong, I looked at a couple of currencies vs that. I saw EUR/CHF, and it looked like it was ready to break to the downside. Maybe I shouldn’t have taken this trade because CHF wasn’t in my initial analysis, but upon seeing the chart, I liked what I saw.
I entered the trade, with the spread in mind, and let it go. It got triggered in fairly quickly, and didn’t take too long to reach 1R. From there, price continued to the downside, getting all the way to my target. Once it got within a couple pips of my target, I started following my stop loss along the SAR on the 3 min. chart.
Unfortunately, despite pushing through my target price twice, my buy order never triggered, so I ended up getting out when this made a rally and hit my “trailing” stop. Still, though, overall I’d say this was a nice 10 pip win!
Thanks for reading! Let me know in the comments what you saw today, and any moves you capitalized on. And stay tuned for more trades and analysis.