I did an analysis on Monday, but chart patterns in the stock market can change daily. Equities gapped up yesterday and remained strong throughout the day. Today, price is pushing up again, but as of right now, it’s not making a strong push. The S&P’s price is sitting right near a resistance area, so it could still start to push down, but it appears to be trying to hold on to it’s strength. I’m not sure it will break out today, but as of right now, the S&P is suggesting to me: Longs.
Since price is somewhat stalling at that resistance area, though, and I’ve been bearish, maybe I should maintain that outlook. I think I’ll take each chart at roughly face value, and use my S&P overlay to see how each stock has been correlated to it, and, as usual, try to make the best decision I can. I’m not going to force anything, either. Let’s see how stocks look.
TSLA – Long – I have a thing where if I took a trade in something within the last, say, week, I don’t want to trade it again. Especially if I lost that trade. I’m not sure why. If something is moving, I should want to get in to it, no matter what. If I’m day-trading, there’s a chance I’d only look at one stock and take multiple shots at that. It’s a psychological issue I need to move past, and here’s a step in that direction.
I don’t need to explain everything I’ve done in this trade here, so I’ll just talk about the immediate movement. I’m looking at the 3 day chart right now, and over he last roughly 3 sessions, price has shown strength. The current 3-day session is down a bit, but sitting at the highs of the last one, which is also has served as a key level here. This has been pushing up since the beginning of the year, had a pullback during the first half of march, but has pushed up since then. It reached some resistance, where it’s pulling back, and that looks like a great point to get a long trade in. I’m going to drop down to the 2h chart, look for entries and run the numbers here.
COIN – Long – This has been pushing down since the crypto bubble popped last year, but since the beginning of the year, there’s been some strength. Price pushed up from there until it peaked early February. From there, price pulled back to about 1/2 it’s gains from the beginning of the year, and hovered there for a few weeks. Over the last 4 or so days, price has pushed back up, nearing the highs from early Feb. There was a huge spike yesterday, which might have been an extended move, and today, price is on a little bit of a pullback. It would be the second bull-pullback on the 2h chart, and it looks pretty clean, so I think I’ll take a shot here, given the numbers work.
End of Day
I- Let me start over. Let’s look at this from a positive perspective. All day today, I was looking for longs, I kept my eye on the charts, no longer liked the movement — rather, they didn’t trigger in time. And, instead of leaving the orders open, as I probably would have in the past, I closed them.
Looking at the charts now, it’s a good thing I did. Equities, TSLA and COIN all dropped starting around noon, and the TSLA trade would have triggered, and quickly lost, had I left it open. In that sense, I made 1R today. If I could only trust myself more, this would have been an actual 1R+ day. I called out the market dropping off of the resistance area, and it did so today, if I had stuck to my bearish outlook that I had JUST YESTERDAY, I would have made money.
On one hand, I’m a bit upset that I didn’t trust myself, but on the other hand, I’m a bit more confident now as I didn’t cling to an initial outlook when the market showed me something different. I want to pat myself on the back for my initial outlook, saying I was ultimately right, but really, if the market had pushed up, I’d be congratulating myself on being right now, and, sometimes, you can’t have it both ways.
I don’t want to over-inflate my confidence and take unnecessary risks, so what I’m actually taking away from this is: I’m becoming more flexible, and starting to understand instead of know that there are opportunities abound in the market, so it’s okay to cut my losses and find something that’s actually doing what I want it to do elsewhere.