The S&P gapped down this morning, and hasn’t been able to hold any strength today, but that said, since the beginning of the year, price has been pushing up. There’s been a steady rise, and at the end of the week last week, price got up to some resistance that it reached back at the end of the year last year. Also, save for a down period over the last couple weeks of last year, the S&P has largely been pushing up since Mid-October.
With today being a down day, I wouldn’t be surprised at a decent up day tomorrow, and a continuation of the trend this week — I only look at technicals, so I don’t know if there’s any catalysts coming up that could shake things up, so I’m sticking with my initial outlook. As always, though, I’m available to short something, and will do my best to remain open to what the market is giving me.
NET – Long – I might be putting too much weight in the recent action of this, but it’s been pushing up steadily since the beginning of the year, taking out a couple of resistance areas. On Friday, this had a strong up-move, and it reached levels from Q4 last year, that it bounced around for a awhile, as well as — you know, looking beyond the last 6 months, right around where price currently is, there’s a lot of instances of chop, and $54 (yesterday’s high) has been a major support/resistance area multiple times in the past. With the large up-move on Friday, and the gap-down today, I thought this might be a good retest candidate, but looking a little further back, and it feels like this could be susceptible to fakeouts. I think I’ll just leave this alone.
C – Long – This has, in a lot of ways, been following the S&P — making a push up since the middle of October last year, and steadily pushing up since the beginning of this year. Over the last week, this has largely been moving sideways as it’s reached a key area right around $52. With the steady up move, and the recent sideways movement, this looks like a good candidate for a pop in the near future, especially if it can break that resistance area. I’ll put some focus here this week, and see if I can find a good entry/exit.
ROKU – Long – This has been down strong for about a year-and-a-half, so I really shouldn’t be looking at Long’s here. That said, there’s been a strong push up since the beginning of the year (the strongest up-move it’s had in this entire down-trend), and price has started to stall around an area that’s been both support and resistance recently — largely throughout the last quarter of last year. Again, with this recent push up, coupled with the “energy building” sideways moves that it’s showing over the last week, this might be poised to break out. I’ll look for entries here, but I’ll do so with a smaller position size given it’s longer-term history.
LVS – Long – I lost a trade here a couple of weeks ago, and once again, I was right about my analysis but just off on the timing — I entered that trade at $53.80 with a target price of $55, and as of right now, price is sitting at roughly $58. At the end of last week, price gapped up, retested the previous highs, but then pushed back up and finished up quite a bit. Friday, price made a new high, but peaked and closed at it’s open. Today, there was a bit of a gap-down, and looking at the daily chart, looks like a quick pullback that could be traded. Looking at other levels near current price, there was a lot of support and resistance right at this level in the past, so price might start to stagnate around here. But it’s been pushing up quite strong over the last few months, so I want to keep this on my radar in case of another push up.
DOW – Long – This had a vertical drop over a couple of weeks last summer, gained some of that back, moving sideways with a slight upward trajectory over the next 2 months, then dropped fairly sharply again until the end of September last year. Since then, price has steadily been pushing up — though there’s been periods of chop/sideways movement. Since the beginning of the year, price has continued it’s upward push, having 9 up-days in a row to start the year, and took out the resistance area from back in August. Over the last couple of weeks, price has been moving sideways again, and I can even see a fairly clear double-bottom that’s formed and was technically broken out of on Friday. Price has pulled back quite a bit today, but is staying near the highs of the range (the “neck” of the double-bottom). This looks like a nice base to take long, with a good amount of room between the current price and the next resistance area, so at first glance it looks like it’ll offer a good R:R. I’ll definitely put some focus here and look for a good entry point/pattern.
COIN – Long – This was mostly down for the first and third quarters of last year, with mostly sideways movement/lots of choppiness during the middle 6 months of the year. Since the beginning of this year, price has been pushing up strong — similar to the overall market. Not counting last Friday, over the last week+ price has largely moved sideways. But on Friday, price made a nice push up and broke the highs of that base and putting price into the middle of the range it was in for several months last year. This morning, price has pulled back, and is appearing to retest the base it was in for the prior week. That retest looks really good to me, and I see room to the next resistance area; though there could be some chop in there. I really like the last month’s price action, so I’m keeping it on my list, but it’s the movement before that that’s giving me pause. I’ll revisit tomorrow and see if I can find an entry point
MDLZ – Long – This has been in a very wide $10 – $15 range for nearly 2 years, with no real, discernible trend. I could put my thoughts out there, on this, and why I pulled it out in the first place, but after this second look, I don’t like it at all and I’m just going to get rid of it from my watch-list.
MU – Short – I’ve mostly been looking for Longs, but when I looked at this chart, I thought it could be a short candidate. But after looking through some of the other things I pulled out to trade “Long”, I’m not longer sure why this one, of all of them, I’d trade short. It, like a lot of the others, has been pushing down overall, but (also like the others) has been pushing up since the beginning of the year and is up against some resistance right now. Price is currently hovering around a level that it’s failed at back in July, a bit in September as well as November, so it looks like a key level that price will drop from again. But, again, I’m not sure why I think this one will drop, but thought some of the other one’s could push through and make new highs? — I’m going to keep this a short on my list, and see how things shake up throughout the week.
As I mentioned in the MU write-up, I feel like I’m looking at a couple of similar overall patterns in these stocks, but for some reason, some of them I want to trade Long and some I want to trade Short. I’m going to stick with my outlook for this week, and then on Friday, revisit this and see how things shook out. Here’s to another great trading week.