I did a mid-week update of my analysis on Wednesday, and re-evaluated each currency to see where I’d put money the next day. In doing so, AUD/USD long came up as a viable pair to trade — see Journal from 8/10 for more details.
Looking at this daily chart, this had been pushing down, largely, since early April, but since mid July pushed up, made a new high, pulled back some making a higher low and was above that new high again when I looked at this long.
Looking down at the 5 min chart, while there was a bit of chop, price was in a fairly clear base; and with the overall strength I perceived, I put an entry order with a trailing stop.
Entry – 0.7129
Target – 0.71522
Stop – 0.712
Entry – 0.71291
Exit – 0.71270
Price pushed in my favor pretty quickly, pulling the trailing stop with it. But not long after that, price reversed again, eventually hitting my stop — stopping me out at nearly break even. Honestly, looking this one through: maybe I made the mistake of taking the trade in the opposite direction of the overall trend, but I did so after a full analysis of each currency, not after glancing at a RSW chart or meter, so I don’t think this was a counter-trend trade at all. I think this is just the normal ebb and flow of trading, and I’m glad it was closer to a break even trade than a full loss.
