I still plan on day trading tomorrow (1%, 1%, 1%, 1%!), but a thought that I just had/read is that I need to create a day-trading plan. Time’s I’m going to trade, how I’m going to find instruments to trade, how I’m going to determine directionality and anything else I can think of that might be relevant.
EUR/CAD, which is the only place I ended up putting money yesterday, continued to range, but has technically been up since my trades. That said, price had a huge upper-wick today right at the top of the current range — maybe even breaking out a little — but closed basically at it’s open. I think I’m going to look there tomorrow, again, for some short trades
I’m still, somewhat, in the process of determining how I’m going to day-trade stocks, if at all, so I don’t currently have anything to say there. Other than, maybe, that the S&P was up a good amount to day, and broke a pretty strong resistance area. So, I’m going to look at the Forex basket and see if there’s much difference from Monday’s analysis
USD – S – It’s hard for me not to look to short the dollar right now. A) it made a definite lower high and lower low (making the lower-low yesterday) B) Equities broke a strong resistance area, which *should* result in a weaker dollar and C) price gapped up pretty significantly this morning, but closed at the open. Maybe I’m rushing it, but I’m gong to look to short tomorrow
CAD – S – CAD has usually had a correlating relationship with USD from what I understand, so thinking this should be short makes sense here. Also, it’s down since Monday when I was cautiously bullish, but definitely saw a turnover happening. Tomorrow, based on what I just looked at, I planned on being fully bearish. But as I thought it through, I realized that I planned on looking at EUR/CAD short, which is technically a bullish CAD play. Not to say that pair won’t drop, but maybe I shouldn’t put my focus there if I think CAD is looking weak…. Now, if CAD happens to bounce around this support area by the time I get to the charts tomorrow, I might look at that EUR/CAD play; especially since I’m looking at 1 – 5min charts. We’ll play it by ear
Today’s Pairs
AUD/CAD – Long
NZD/CAD – Long
AUD/USD – Long
NZD/USD – Long
CAD/CHF – Short
USD/CHF – Short
EUR – N – EUR has been largely ranging over the last couple of weeks within a much larger and, I guess I could say less-defined, downtrend. Monday, this was pushing down after 2 up-days, so it looked like a bear rally was completing, but price just bounced off of that low and pushed back up to those recent highs. Things still look bearish overall, and price was down today, but I wouldn’t be surprised in the least by an up-move overnight/tomorrow. I think I’ll only look a EUR if it’s within that EUR/CAD drop from the highs of the base, otherwise, I’ll leave it alone
GBP is very choppy. No thanks
JPY – N – Price ranged here for about 2 months, then over the course of about 3 days, rallied up and out of that range. That was about a week ago, and since then, price has been down. Now, it’s hovering right around the highs of the range it was previously in, so I’m not sure if this is a return to the mean, or a retest before a reversal. Since I can’t tell, I think I’ll leave it alone
AUD – L – There’s a lot I could say about AUD. I could make a compelling case for this in either direction, based on the technicals, so I’m going to lean long. Again, I may be forcing something (I hope not), but coupled with the facts that I’m bearish USD and that equities just broke a fairly major resistance area (and AUD is typically correlated with US equities), I’m comfortable with that assumption. I’ll see what it looks like on individual charts tomorrow
NZD – L – NZD isn’t as strong of a Long case as AUD is. That said, yesterday, price spiked HARD and pushed well out of any recent resistance. It’s around an area that’s held as support/resistance both in early June and early January of this year, so I think if it’s going to move up a little, it’s going to move up a lot. I’m cautiously comfortable with this Long
CHF – L – This has a lot of chop too, but I can definitely see signs of strength. Price even broke out and made a new recent high yesterday, though price closed even on the day. I’d be interested in looking at this long, but probably only as a last resort