Equities are pushing down again this morning, and is currently sitting near a support level from the drop a few weeks ago. We’re still above the support area, so A) I think there’s more weakness to be had this week but B) can’t really determine how much until we see how it reacts around the support level.
The VIX gapped up this morning, but pushed down all day so far. I wouldn’t be surprised to see increased volatility throughout the rest of the week, though, so hopefully I can take advantage. I need to call to see about getting my permissions updated, but maybe I can live chat? I’ll figure that out. I think I should at least analyze the Forex market for now and then see where we’re at after.
USD – S/N – This is down on the day and at some point, it took out the lows from Friday, but stalled at a pretty strong support level, and has pushed up from there. There’s also a long upper wick, so this pushed up this morning at some point, too. Right now, price is sitting near the open. Since I’m not sure where Equities are heading, I’m going to take the basket at face value — and with that, I’m mildly bearish. I’ll have more of an assumption if this breaks that support level, or pushes up and breaks some resistance, but for now, I’m cautiously bearish
CAD – S – This has been pushing down for 6 days in a row now, and today’s candle has a large upper wick and is down on the day. It’s coming up on some fairly strong support, but price doesn’t seem to be oversold quite yet (it’s on the lower band, but it’s definitely possible that price rides that line for a while. Plus this is just the basket informing my actual decisions). I like this to the short side
EUR – N – This is a tough one. I’ve mentioned it before, but a couple of weeks ago (first couple days of February) this spiked hard, but since then it’s steadily pushed back down. [I took a break to eat lunch and, of course, smoke, but I’m back and am planning on finishing the analysis.] Today, as of now, price has been pushing down off of the highs, but is still up on the day. Price is now fully back within a range that it stayed in for a few days at a time, twice. I could maybe try to play this range — looking to short it early tomorrow — but that would be contingent on me getting up early and getting to the charts, as well as me being able to trade Forex, both of which I can’t seem to do right now. Ultimately, I’m imagining it’ll stay in it’s range, but am cautious because of the prior volatility
GBP – S/N – This looks like it pushed down pretty strong this morning, and likely faked a lot of people out. Not sure why I’m mentioning that — I’m glad I’m not one of them, but at the same time am upset I’m on the sidelines. Today’s candle has a long lower wick that took out lows from the last 24 days, but is currently sitting near it’s open, back within the range it’s been in for as much time. The Bands are constricting and the MA’s are starting to come together, so there appears to be not much pressure here, but it did push down a lot and is on the third down day in a row, so maybe it’s building. I’m going to be cautiously bearish here and see what individual charts look like
JPY – S – All indicators of the Yen are moving sideways right now, and there doesn’t appear to be much pressure in either direction. This did push down a bit today, and has formed a decent double-top that hasn’t been broken yet — so if price crosses that area, it could make for a good short
AUD – L – I’ve been mostly bullish AUD since it pushed above it’s falling trend-line and continued to make higher-highs and higher lows. Today, price pushed up a decent amount but came up to the resistance are that held since the 10th, as well as for a period at the end of December. I may have missed a lot of the reversal move, but this does still look like it has strength behind it. I’ll take a look at individual charts
NZD – L – This has steadily pushing up for the last 7 trading days, including today, where it’s pushed up quite a bit. Price has reached a resistance level, so I’m not sure how much more upward movement it has, but it’s not quite overbought either. I think this has a little more room to push up, so I’ll see what individual charts look like
CHF – N – I missed it, but this pushed up quite nicely yesterday, taking out the range it’s been in and getting up to the top of it’s Bollinger band. Today, though, price dropped significantly, taking out yesterday’s gains and then some. This looks like it wants to stay right in this range, so I’ll leave it alone for now. I guess I could look at EUR/CHF for a range-bound play, but I’ll leave that for later.
I’ve gone through my analysis and I’ve got that conflicted feeling again. I want to feel confident about what I saw, but there’s a part of me that feels like I may have wanted to look at AUD & NZD long — that’s not to say they weren’t showing signs of bullishness, but I’ve seen it before and I’ve been wrong before. It seems like I’ve been picking directions fairly well, but still haven’t been able to find the opportunities. I need to at least be better about putting hypothetical lines on charts, or even using the practice account………
I’ll try to try that until I get my permissions straightened out. All I can do is keep on pushing forward. These write-ups and Friday’s reviews are going to make me better, I just need to get in the game, I can’t do anything if I’m on the sidelines, so I have to get there. Don’t be afraid of losses, they don’t mean I’m wrong I’M GOING TO HAVE LOSSES! It’s OK, be ready for them and know that things just didn’t work out that time, but they will more often than not they will more often than not!
As much as I probably want to, I think we won’t (and shouldn’t) drink tonight, so I should feel okay in the morning. I want to get up, I’ll try on the first alarm tomorrow. At least turning it off and waking myself up rather than continuing to snooze..
Just had a thought that I’m going to jot down here and then get started with. If I want to get in the habit of being in the game, I need to be in the game. So, Starting today, I’m going to take one trade every day, including practice accounts. As long as I get one in, live or not, at least I’m participating and gathering data of my analysis. I know I now am impatient when it comes to practice accounts, but if I physically can’t trade, I should at least do that.
I know it’s not in my plan to take a trade every day, and I only want a few a week (and would be fine with taking multiple trades in one day and having other days where I sit out), but I have to get back into it and build back up and get into the rhythm. So, that’s the new goal, I can’t be discouraged with the practice account, I have to use it. I go to the gym by myself and put up shots, I can use the practice account.
Not to mention, I want to use the practice account throughout my whole career to try different things anyway, so I need to be in the habit. So, that’s the new thing. Take a trade (not just an entry order, an actual trade. Even if I have to market order an option and force something in a practice account) every day.