Well, I realized that I never re-made the regular call/put buying calculator, so I wanted to take care of that before looking at charts this morning in case something looked good. Unfortunately, though, I didn’t have the greatest morning — just felt sad, and IDK what else, but it really made it difficult for me to work this morning. I putzed around, used the bathroom read some and finally got to it and finished the calculators just a couple of minutes ago.
So, I guess I’m going to look at the Forex market and setup the rest of my week there. Not the greatest Monday, but at least I did make the calculators…
Looking at equities, now that the markets have closed for the day, price didn’t move much. It was down overall, but didn’t break the highs or lows of Friday. Price, for Friday and Today, largely stayed right around the 20MA which has crossed under the 50 (A couple of weeks ago) and is heading down. There appears to be further weakness coming in equities, at least that’s what I see technically. I’ll keep that in mind when looking at the baskets.
USD – L – This pushed up strong at the beginning of the year, but pulled back all of last week, save for Friday. It looks like it may have pushed further than the retest level, but it did stall at a strong support (past resistance) area than what I’d consider to be the “First” retest level. This did push up pretty considerably on Friday, but has pushed down mostly today, though it didn’t get as low as Friday’s lows. Honestly, especially with my expected weakness in equities, I like this to the upside. It’s bouncing off of the MA’s which are starting to cross over, so I’m going to search for Long opportunities in USD tomorrow
CAD – L – This has been up-trending since mid-December, really, mid-September, but with some consolidation/whipsawing between mid-October and mid-December. I mention that because, looking at the weekly chart, this appears to still be trending up. Price pulled back some, touching it’s 20MA, which is heading upward, and has been heading upward since. I could see more upward movement here, so I’ll look long tomorrow
EUR – L – With the 2 huge days at the end of last week, it’s hard to say anything other than “long” here. Price did push down today, but looking at the 4h chart, it could just be a bear flag (the last candle was up slightly and the current candle appears to be pushing up slightly as well). I won’t chase, because looking at the weekly chart, this has mostly been moving sideways with a couple of spikes, so chances are this could just start ranging right around here for the foreseeable future, but I’ll look on individual charts for some breakout opportunities.
GBP – N – This was strong since early December, pushing up for almost a month straight with no breaks. It had a sizable pullback starting at the beginning of the year, but gave back 1/3 and then has pushed up again. On the push up, though, price had 2 days in a row with huge breakouts, but price ultimately closed at the open and there’s been some push down since then. I see a lot of choppiness right now, so I’m going to mark this N due to unpredictability.
Side note: I just looked at this on the weekly chart, too, and it looks like a much more smooth uptrend, with potential to break out, but it’s up against a resistance level that’s held since 2018. I’m actually going to be thinking about shorting this soon
JPY – S – With weakness in equities I’d expect this to increase, but it doesn’t seem to be able to hold on to many of it’s gains. This looked like it had potential to reverse and push to the upside, and looking at the 4h chart you’d be tempted to think so, but looking at the weekly chart, this made a higher high and a higher low, but then subsequently made a lower high, all in the framework of a downtrend that’s lasted since 11/2020. I’ll look to short this here
AUD – S – This has been in a fairly clear downtrend since the beginning of last November, and over the last 5 or 6 weeks, has followed the trend-line almost to a T. Today, price pushed up a good amount, but failed at that trend-line, and as of right now is pushing down a little bit in tomorrow’s candle. I’m definitely bearish here
NZD – N – This, by contrast, has pushed up above the falling trend-line that was pretty clear over the last few weeks, but it hasn’t been able to hold on to any strength, really. This has been basing since the beginning of the month, on the daily chart, so I’ll hold off
CHF – N – This is still range-bound, too, and IDK what it is about CHF. Maybe I’m burnt out all the time by the time I get to it, or maybe it’s because I just smoked, but I just don’t see anything I like there and I don’t feel like explaining it. It just doesn’t look great right here.