Equities held on to it’s strength yesterday, and ended up having a nice up-day. Today, as of right now at least, price is pushing down a bit, but is already off of the lows. I could definitely see this pushing higher, but technical analysis tells me this has more weakness. I don’t think technical analysis is as relevant in the S&P, though, as it always goes up and it always is changing to ensure it goes up. With that in mind, I’ll assume the bear move is over and we’re headed back to some strength (and thus weakness in USD and JPY, strength in AUD and KIWI).
Dollar is dropping, which is to be expected with equities rising. That said, it’s falling right into a resistance area right here, so I’d like to see this break that area before I pulled any triggers. I don’t want to subject myself to any fakeouts. I’ll hold off here
CAD – This is down again today, and yesterday, price closed right at the open. I could see further weakness here, but it’s also been riding the 20MA up, so it could bounce here in the coming days. I’m unsure, so I’ll hold off
EUR pushed to the top of it’s Bollinger Band this morning, and is already down on the day (though, it’s also off of it’s lows a good amount.) Maybe I’ll look to short this to the bottom of this range this week. In a demo account, if I see something I like, I’ll take a shot
Pound is up today after a dip yesterday but it’s failed to reach the highs of yesterday or even Friday. This could have a bit more upside potential, but I don’t think it has much. I’ll leave this alone for now, probably the rest of the week
Yen is sitting at it’s open right now, and is sitting near the lows of the range it’s been in for a while. I don’t love this year, especially with strength in equities, so I’ll hold off. If this breaks the lows of this base, or starts to get close, I’ll look to short it potentially
Aussie is, overall, down trending over the last few weeks, and the 20 crossed under the 50MA yesterday. Price is up a bit on the day, but not as high as yesterday, and looks to be making some clear lower highs here. That said, this could be a reversal move with strength in equities, but I’d need to see more of that play out. In the meantime, I don’t love how this is moving, so I’ll hold off
Kiwi has a huge spinning top yesterday, but the sellers lost out today and price is pushing up a good amount. Looking at the 4h chart, there appears to be some rallies forming, but then the sellers win out again. It’s stalled at a support level, but this has been getting beaten down for a while. This doesn’t look like it can hold on to a ton of strength right now, but I’m also wary about shorting it with equity strength. This is up near the top band on the 1h chart, selling something overbought within a downtrend should be exactly what I’m looking for, but there’s nothing, really, I like to the upside… I’ll keep my eye out, maybe a divergence in AUD/NZD
I don’t love CHF, and I have to use the bathroom, so there’s not much I’m going to say about it. I’m just going to leave it alone today
I’m looking at my screener, and there are 49 stocks that match my criteria. That’s way too many. I know I’ve mentioned it in the past, but I really need to figure out how to pare down that list, and maybe it’s by using another list? I know ThinkorSwim has a tracker/screener, so maybe I use that. I know I can include implied volatility there, so that might be the move, but I’m also still drilling down my rules.
I need to have an entire set of rules — of course there will be overlap — for each type of trade I plan on taking. I have something already, but it hasn’t worked out for me too well so far (plus, the current plan is what’s used when I find the 40 – 50 stocks to look at) so it needs to be updated. I want to plan everything from security discovery all the way to exiting the position, and with the way options prices move, I might need a little more time to really figure out my exit rules. Which is frustrating.
I just have to keep laying bricks. It’s another day where I feel like I want to apply for jobs and, man, IDK… I need to put pen to paper, open a word document and work on it, but I’m not there right now. Hopefully I don’t put it off another day… I do want to maybe learn some more, potentially try to glean more info from some YouTube videos. Maybe I’m stalling and that’s an excuse…