I’ve got to (metaphorically) lay a brick today. I don’t feel great — a little hung over and frustrated, but I have to lay a brick.
There’s an AUD announcement tonight at 6:30, but I’m only doing good-for-day entries, so that shouldn’t affect me — and it’s not like I’m going to be trading live when it happens so I should be good.
Equities gapped down this morning, and continued to push down. Right now, they’re sitting on a support level from last October, but this looks quite weak. That said, it’s blown through the lower band, and since it gapped, I imagine it’ll fill the gap (and it’s way oversold on the RSI), so I could see this bouncing a little more from here, but I think overall this is going to be a risk-off week.
USD – L – This is up .65% on the day already and If we’re in a risk-off environment, I expect this to continue to rise. Today’s candle is quite extended, though, so I’m not sure the opportunity is there right now, but definitely someplace I want to be this week
CAD – L – I’m marking this neutral right now because it’s been pushing down a bit over the last 4 trading days, but overall, I think this has more upside potential. The current pullback is stalling at some support that was resistance and we’re still a good amount above the MA’s. The MA’s are also heading upwards, along with the Bollinger Bands, and RSI is above 50 and not overbought. Actually, I’m going to change my outlook to Long here and take a look at individual charts
Today’s Pairs
GBP/USD – Short
GBP/CAD – Short
GBP/JPY – Short
AUD/USD – Short
AUD/CAD – Short
AUD/JPY – Short
NZD/USD – Short
NZD/CAD – Short
NZD/JPY – Short
EUR – N – Last week, this pushed through support and looked like it had a lot of selling pressure behind it, but Tuesday had a lot of indecision and Friday brought prices back up to the resistance area that was the support it broke. Today, it’s pushed up through that resistance area and is back within the range it was in prior to last week — so it wasn’t a retest. This still looks choppy and like there’s not a lot of pressure in either direction here, so I’ll hold off
GBP – S – GBP is pushing down right now, and it looks to be in a similar fashion to the rise it had starting Mid-December. Price is clearly moving in one direction, but each daily candle has large wicks and small bodies — so there’s a lot of whiplash each day which doesn’t seem like a great trading environment. The 4h chart is showing a steadier decline, bouncing between the 20MA and the lower band on it’s way down, so maybe there is some opportunity there. I’ll take a look at this Short this week
JPY – L – This is pushing up, seemingly coinciding with the drop in equities. It’s been pushing up since the beginning of the year, too, and is now above both MA’s. The RSI is starting to head upward, and so are the MA’s, though, they haven’t crossed yet. I’m still bullish here, and will look at this on individual charts
AUD – S – I think I’ve been hesitating marking this short because I know it’ll add a bunch more charts for me to peruse, and apparently that gives me anxiety… woo…. Still, though, with equities dropping, this should drop as well, and it’s doing so so far today. There are definitely 2 lower highs, and as of now is making a third lower low, so it looks like it could continue to drop. Couple that with the fact that it’s sitting right on top of support right now and I’ll definitely look at this short today
NZD – S – I’m bearish here, but A) not as bearish as, say, AUD and B) I’m not super bearish today. I think this week this will definitely continue to drop, but there’s a lot of indecision here right now. I’ll mark it short (and maybe even pull in the charts to the watch-list) but I’m not going to study NZD charts today
CHF – N – This had a huge up-day last Friday, and today it pushed up again, breaking out of a fairly strong resistance area. As of right now, though, price has already pulled back to that area, and is sitting right on it’s top band. This looks extended to me, and I’m not sure how much more upside pressure this will have, so I think I’m going to hold off here for now. I’ll glance tomorrow, but I’ll probably leave it alone until I do a mid-week on Wednesday