Well, I managed to distract myself with Reddit and games all morning. It’s now nearly 11am and I’m just getting started..
Equities are down a bit today, but not much and still well within the uptrend. I’ll still assume risk-on but we’ll see what the baskets are showing.
USD – N – This started up a good amount this morning, but pretty quickly reverted back to it’s open. It’s pushed down a bit on the day too but again, is sitting where it opened. Overall, this has been trending up for the last 1 – 1.5 months, so I think I only want to take this long, but that doesn’t look viable today, so I’ll hold off
CAD – S – This had a pretty sizable drop today, and looking at the basket it looks like it dropped enough to take out the support levels from Yesterday. I might be a little late on this, but I’ll take a look
EUR – N – Looking at EUR, it’s maybe something I’m not going to touch for a while. Over half of the last 50 daily candles have large wicks and small bodies, which does mean a lot of volatility, but it looks very unpredictable. Today, price is on a nice spike, but it’s already about 1/4 off of the highs of the day and, again, the unpredictability (and my waning confidence) make me want to leave this alone for today
Today’s Pairs
GBP/CAD – Long
CAD/JPY – Short
GBP/AUD – Long
AUD/JPY – Short
GBP – L – This broke out to new highs this morning — making a new high since March of 2020. That said, there’s a pretty strong amount of resistance from that month as well. Looking down at the 4h chart, there’s a huge spike that’s in the midst of happening, which would normally give me some pause, but I’m curious about what it looks like on individual charts, and what might happen, so I’ll take a look at this to the long side
JPY – L – This is on a nice spike this morning, though it may be too large. Regardless, looking at the daily chart, it’s pushing up and is sitting right at some resistance that, if it could break through, could make for a nice run. It’s also still pushing up, riding the 20MA like it’s been doing since the end of June. Looking at 4h/1h charts, I don’t see anything that suggests too much extension, so I’ll take a look at this to the upside
AUD – S – This is basing right now/still, but it does look overall weak. It’s been pushing down since early May and has rolled over to the downside since well before that. That said, right now, it’s stalled somewhat within a range from back in November/December 2020, and it’s hard to tell where the support/resistance areas are here. I like it to the downside, but maybe not today. One thing I did see before I went to NZD, though, is an ok head and shoulders on the 4h chart, so maybe a short is more viable than I thought. I’ll take a look
NZD – N – This is down a good amount today, but it’s still within a longer-term range and even if it does push down a bit more, I’m not sure how much farther it’ll go. I don’t see a solid R:R in NZD today, so I’ll hold off
CHF – N – This is pushing up today, but it’s already stalled out at some prior resistance, and if it does push through, there’s not a ton of room until the next one. Similar to NZD, it looks strong, but I’m not sure if it’ll offer a good R:R today