Equities are pushing down again today, and it looks like they’ve pushed through that support (prior resistance) area, but have since rallied back to that area. Overall, it’s still down on the day and looks to maybe just be retesting (though it’s a pretty large up-candle, maybe the push down was “false”?). It’s tough this morning, so I’ll take the baskets at face value.
USD – N – This pushed down a bit this morning, but rallied and is mostly sitting at even on the day. Looking down at the 4h charts, too, it’s still sitting a little above a fairly major support level — the support level it stalled at before it made (what looked like) a reversal move to the upside. I don’t see this pushing meaningfully through this support level today, so I’ll hold off
CAD – N – This is up on the day, but for the last several weeks has been in a range with a lot of indecision around it each day. Today looks very similar, so I think I’m just going to hold off. I might entertain trading this if it’s at an extreme on the JPY comparison chart, but looking at it’s basket, I don’t love it
Today’s Pairs
GBP/CHF – Long
CHF/JPY – Short
NZD/CHF – Long
EUR – N – Yesterday, price closed up but it closed closer to the lows than the highs on the day. Today, it’s showing something similar with a large upper wick and a small body near the low of the day. It’s still sitting above yesterday’s open, which is positive, but it’s stalled at some resistance. I don’t see much conviction here, so I’ll hold off
GBP – L – After having a pretty solid last week, this came up to some resistance and pulled back some yesterday. It broke out of those highs this morning, but pulled back pretty quickly. This has been strong, and it did make a new highs, so I’ll take a look at this to the upside this morning
JPY – L – This spiked earlier this morning, but over the last couple of hours has been pushing down. There’s a gap down between the last 2 hourly candles, which I don’t often see at all. That said, the pullback is roughly half of the spike that it made and with equities looking more weak than strong, it’s not crazy to think this has some underlying strength. I’ll take a look at individual charts and see what they look like
AUD – N –
- On the daily chart, this pushed up to some slightly new highs, but has since pulled back and is sitting right at it’s open.
- On the 4h chart, this looks like a clean bull pullback that might want to spike
- On the hourly chart, though, the rally back up is stalling at a slightly lower resistance area than the highs it broke to this morning, and
- Equities are overall weak, so the correlation would suggest weakness here
All that said, I think more signs point to this not moving at all, or maybe dropping a bit but not much. I’ll hold off today and see how this is behaving tomorrow
NZD – L – Today’s candle is sitting within yesterday’s, but it looks almost poised to break out of that area. Looking at the 4h chart, it’s completing a longer-term bull pullback and there’s even a smaller bull pullback on the hourly chart. I’ll take a look at this to the long side and try to find an opportunity here
CHF – S – This is down strong on the day and is currently stalled at some support from January of 2020. This definitely looks weak, my only fear is that it’s extended and I missed the move. I’ll take a look at individual charts and hope that’s not the case