Equities pushed up yesterday and looked pretty strong. Futures right now, though, have taken back all of yesterday’s gains. I’m having the same dilemma I have pretty much every day: Which direction are equities going to move at the open and how correlated are the currencies. I’m going to assume a risk-off day, but mostly take the currencies at face value.
USD – N – This has mostly been basing since the big drop a couple of weeks ago. The argument could be made that it’s formed/forming a bear rally, though. It’s at the bottom of that range now, but doesn’t look like it has much conviction in either direction. I don’t love this, so I’m going to hold off here
CAD – N – This is in a bit of a base at the bottom of a down-move that lasted all of last week. It looks like it maybe wants to drop further, but it doesn’t look like it can actually fall that far. I’ll hold off here for now, and revisit if there aren’t any other shorts that I like
EUR – N – This made a strong up-move last week, pulled back over a couple of days taking back about half, and has been up again today. It’s up against some pretty strong resistance, and has already pulled back off of the highs but there are a lot of areas this could get stalled at, so I’ll hold off here
Today’s Pairs
GBP/AUD – Long
GBP/NZD – Long
AUD/JPY – Short
NZD/JPY – Short
GBP – L/N – This has kind of stayed above the range it was in for a while since the spike up last week. It did pull back, but stayed above that area. It’s been in a bit of a base, and today, it looks like it’s already pushed above that base a little. On the hourly chart, it’s sitting at some resistance and looks like it might be starting to base again. I’ll take a look at this on individual charts to see if there’s opportunity
JPY – L/N – This dropped strong a week ago, but since then has steadily been trying to push higher. It’s gotten back about half of the losses, and appears to be stalled at some resistance. This is the last major level of resistance, so if it can meaningfully break, this could be a good long play. I’ll take a look here, but I won’t chase
AUD – S/N – This pushed down strong this morning and is stalling at some support. It honestly looks a bit extended, but could start to form a tradable pattern here. I’ll take a look at this to the downside, but again, I won’t chase here (I might, you know me..)
NZD – S/N – This looks like it could have some weakness behind it today — it’s pushed down a decent amount and is now stalled at some support — but I don’t think there’s much. On the daily chart, this is way above both MA’s and on the 4h chart, it’s sitting at the 20. IDK. I’m looking at AUD to the short side, which doesn’t look much better than this. I guess I’ll take a look…
CHF – N – This is basing and while it’s pushing up right now, it’s not that close to the highs of the base and doesn’t look like it’s ready to do much. I’ll hold off here