Equities dropped a decent amount yesterday and pushed through some recent support. That said, they rallied near the end of the day, taking back about half of the losses. Futures today are somewhat in the middle, but look like they’re trying to rally. They also appear to be stalling at the resistance level that was the support level that it just broke yesterday. I’ll take the baskets at face value, with a slight risk-off lean.
USD – N – This is still in the small base it’s been in for the last few days, and is still sitting a bit above the bottom of the base. With the relatively sharp drop in equities yesterday, this still didn’t move much, so I don’t think it’s going to move much today. I’ll hold off here for now
CAD – S/N – This broke down and pushed through a base yesterday, and today it’s rallied back up to the bottom of that base, and is now sitting back near the lows of the day. I’ll take a look at individual charts to see if there’s any opportunity to short CAD right away, and if not, look to short it when/if it breaks below the day’s lows.
EUR – N – Over the past 6 days, this has been making both lower highs and higher lows, looks like it’s in a wedge pattern, or maybe a squeeze? I’m not as well versed on those two, I’ll have to do a quick search on them. Either way, I don’t like this pattern especially because I can’t tell any direction on it, so I’ll hold off
GBP – L – This was in a pretty ugly base for a long time, broke out of it strong, but then fairly quickly pulled back to within that range. Since then, there’s been a lot of indecision around GBP with yesterday’s candle having a large upper and lower shadow and almost no body and today’s that hasn’t moved much at all. If anything, I’d say I’d look at this long, but I don’t love it where it is, so I’ll hold off for now. I’ll try to keep an eye on it, though, in case it starts to push up
JPY – L/N – This is in a pretty strong base on the daily chart, and doesn’t actually look like it has a ton of conviction to the upside, but if it gains it throughout the day, this could be a great long play. On the hourly chart, this has pushed up to the top of the range on a strong move, but has since pulled back, but stalled at a support level from a small base. I could see this pushing up more today, but no telling if it’d be enough to actually trade. I’ll take a look at individual charts. I know CAD/JPY is forming a nice bear rally on the hourly chart so we’ll see what type of R:R opportunity there is
AUD – N – This appears to be still bear-rallying, but doesn’t have the sellers to really push down yet. The last couple of days this has stalled at resistance that was the support level this stalled at when it broke down strong at the end of September. I could make a case to look at this to the upside, but I don’t love it so I’ll hold off
Today’s Pairs
CAD/JPY – Short
I somewhat ran the numbers on this yesterday, so I think I already know I don’t have a 2 R:R, but there might be something there. I see a nice bear rally, so I’ll run the numbers
NZD/CAD – Long
This looks quite strong, and has already broken out — though it only has 5 pips, and is now sitting only 1 pip above the breakout point. If I’m quick, I’ll run the numbers and I might be able to catch some pips here, we’ll see
CHF/JPY – Short
This has pushed down quite a bit already this morning, and has rallied up to a prior support-resistance level. If it can push back through the day’s lows, this could make for a great short, I’m just not sure that it’s actually got the momentum to do so. I’ll keep an eye on it in case it starts pushing down further
NZD/CHF – Long
This has broken out already this morning, but already is pulling back. I think I’ll set a limit order to play a re-test strategy here in my practice account, otherwise, I’ll keep an eye on this to break out of this bull-pullback. I’ll run the numbers here, too, to be sure
NZD – L/N – This is up a good amount again today, and if equities do rally, that could bode well for this to the upside. It has pushed through a good amount of resistance already, but there was a spike up on the 4th that this hasn’t pushed up above yet, but it’s close. I’ll definitely take a look at this to the upside today
CHF – S/N – This spiked down yesterday, and pushed out of a mini base that it had been in for the previous 3 days, but it quickly rallied back to within that range. If equities are strong, this could drop, so I’ll take a look to see if this has potential to push back lower than the day’s lows and give me some opportunity