Equities pushed down pretty strong yesterday morning, but climbed throughout the day. Futures are up, but only a little. It looks to me like equities are turning over, but that said, yesterday’s candle suggested a lack of sellers throughout the day. I’m leaning risk-off overall, but I’ll take the baskets at face value for the most part.
USD – L/N – If equities are, in fact, dropping, this should start to spike, and price action is looking like it wants to reverse to the upside. Today, it has spiked a bit, but has pulled back and is sitting near it’s open. I think this can push pretty far up if it gets back up to and through the day’s highs, it just seems far enough away from that level for me to look at it, but I don’t want to miss anything, so I’ll look at individual charts
CAD – N – This did end up pushing down a bit more on the day yesterday, but not much. Today, price is up a bit but again with long upper and lower shadows. I don’t love where this is right now, so I’ll hold off. Maybe if this returns to the downside tomorrow, I’ll look to short it
EUR – N – Same as yesterday
GBP – N – Man, I want to look to short this today, but it’s rallied off of it’s lows pretty significantly this morning already. Even if this were to push through the day’s lows, though, I don’t see a ton of room before the next couple of support levels. I’ll wait until this gets to the low it got to a week or so ago when it had that big drop and see how it behaves at that level
JPY – L – The question that I never actually asked about whether FOREX will sometimes lead equities as far as risk sentiment would be great to have an answer to right now. This has been pushing up steadily since the beginning of the month, despite some indecision in equities. Yesterday it had a nice spike up but pulled off of the highs a bit, and today it has spiked up to near yesterday’s highs (maybe slightly above), but is now sitting at yesterday’s close. I won’t look at individual charts quite yet, but I will keep this in mind to the long side throughout the day
AUD – L/N – I said yesterday that I would entertain this to the upside this morning, and while it doesn’t look strong it still looks like it wants to push up. That said, it has made a new low under yesterday’s already, and yesterday’s candle both opened and closed below the 20MA, so a lot of signs are pointing to a reversal (a drop in equities would also suggest that). But, as I mentioned, it looks like it wants to push up and that maybe the sellers are losing momentum. I’ll take a look at individual charts, but this to the upside will be a breakout play if it’s available. I won’t chase here
NZD – N – This is sitting right near it’s open/yesterday’s close, with small shadows. Looks like there’s not a lot of conviction behind NZD anymore today, so I’ll revisit tomorrow. I don’t have a sentiment on direction anyway.
CHF – N – I’m not sure what to really say about this right now. It doesn’t have much conviction in either direction and the MA’s are starting to just move sideways, so I’ll hold off until this gets some direction behind it