Equities dropped a little yesterday, despite making another new high, but futures are looking up again. That said, Futures look like they’re starting to base, so we’ll see what actually happens in equities. The correlations look like they may be starting to return, but it’s still early, so I’ll take the baskets at face value.
USD – S – I looked at shorting this yesterday, but it rallied and closed near it’s open. Today, it’s already pushed to new lows again, and is sitting near yesterday’s low. I’ll look at this to the short side again because it looks like it wants to continue to push down (and it doesn’t look overextended)
CAD – N – I don’t have a whole lot to say about CAD today. It looks like it’s starting to range, so we’ll see how this behaves throughout September, but I don’t like it today
Today’s Pairs
EUR/USD – Long
GBP/USD – Long
AUD/USD – Long
EUR – L – This looks decent today. It’s up again on the day, and has made a new swing high and a higher low. It’s also up against some resistance right now (that it pushed through earlier today), so if it can push back up to the day’s highs, this might be a good long at least to the top of the range
GBP – L – This has officially broken out this morning, which might not be the best news — as in, I may have missed the move. It’s sitting at some resistance right now, though, so I’ll take a look at individual charts. It’s definitely not out of the question for this to also continue to spike up
JPY – N – I like this to the short side, but where it is right now is giving me pause. It’s sitting on top of some support from yesterday and the day before, but right near this level is also a pretty strong support level from December/January. The lows from that period are also still a bit below the current support level. There’s also another pretty major support level below that, so there’s too many places that this can stall, so I’ll hold off for at least this morning
AUD – L – This is a bit of a tough one as it spiked up on Friday and broke out of a strong range. Yesterday, this was up about .4% at one point, but ended up closing up only .1%. Today, it’s pushed up and down a bit (still within yesterday’s candle, though), and is sitting at the open. If this begins to rally through the day, it could push up pretty far, but this also could be the start of yet another base. I’ll take a look at individual charts so I don’t miss anything if the former is true
NZD – N – Know what, I think I’m going to hold off on NZD for today just to be safe. This looked strong at the end of July, but for the first 3 weeks of August this dropped the entire time (now that I’m looking at it, there were lots of opportunities to make money in NZD, but I didn’t…. I don’t think the prop firm did either, so that makes me feel a little better about it). For the last week or so, though, this has been pushing back up and is now at the downward trend-line it broke back in July, which is also at a pretty strong resistance level. That was a long-winded way of saying, since this was down for so long, it’s near a trend-line and a resistance level and the MA’s haven’t crossed over yet, so I’m going to wait for some confirmation before I really look at NZD
CHF – N – This is down quite a bit on the day, and given strength in Equities this should be a good short but A) both EUR and GBP are up strong today which has carried CHF in the recent past B) there’s quite a bit of support at and just below current price/the day’s lows and C) those correlations haven’t been holding up over the last month or so. I’ll give this a couple days to “breathe” and see how it behaves through September