Equities continue to push higher, but currencies aren’t following their correlations. I’m going to continue to take the baskets at face value and, again, not trade breakouts.
USD – N – This pushed down yesterday, and a bit more today, but has stalled at the support level it tested 3 times (and slightly broke last week) IT looks like it has potential to break this level again and drop, but I’m not playing breakouts, so if that happens, I’ll wait for some confirmation but for now, I’m going to hold off
CAD – L/N – CAD has been making higher highs and higher lows steadily over the month, and right now it just made a slightly new low and is sitting at a rough support/resistance “zone”. If this pushes up again on the day, that might be enough to take it to the next higher high. I’ll take a look at individual charts but I won’t chase.
EUR – N – This almost looks like it’s 2/3 through a head and shoulders pattern right now. It’s down for the 2nd day in a row, and today it has pushed through some support, but failed to fully break the lows of that support level. This could be turning around, but again, I’d like some confirmation given I’m not trading breakouts right now, and I considered looking at this to the long side back to the top of the range, but it’s already below the 20MA so I don’t want to do that either. I’ll hold off for now
Today’s Pairs
GBP/CAD – Short
GBP/NZD – Short
GBP – S – This already pushed down a decent amount on the day and has rallied back to the open, so that doesn’t bode well for a short trade. That said, after pushing up to the top of it’s range on Tuesday, this stalled near the top yesterday (pushing a bit higher and lower on the day, but closing near the open). I’ve been looking to play this range and it’s already been down on the day and has rallied back up to the day’s highs. I’ll take a look at individual charts to see if there’s opportunity to short this if it pushes back down
JPY – N – This has pushed down for the last couple of days but ended up closing at it’s open yesterday and it’s only down slightly today as it’s sitting on some pretty strong support. I’m not playing breakouts, so I’m not looking to short this today, and I don’t see a scenario where it rallies right now, so maybe I’ll look to take this long tomorrow (or maybe short it aggressively next week, given volume)
AUD – N – This is tempting, but if it means missing a trade today, I’m comfortable with that. Everything has been ranging and every breakout I’ve tried to play has either been false, or just pushed up enough for me to get a few pips before it reversed. So, I’m not going to fall into that trap with AUD. I’m going to leave it alone and if it breaks out, wait for confirmation and if not, maybe look to short it tomorrow
NZD – L – This is on a nice rally after pushing up for the second day in a row and breaking some resistance. That said, it’s come back up to the resistance level that was support back in June, so I’m not eager to take this long here… that said, this is already more of a reversal than a breakout. Am I trying to talk myself into something I don’t want to do? I don’t think so, this definitely looks different. No, it’s moved a lot already, so I’ll take a look at individual charts, but I don’t think I’ll actually pull the trigger
CHF – N – There’s not much to say here. It’s still ranging and doesn’t have much conviction behind it (and is probably being carried by EUR), so I’m going to leave it alone