First day back in a while. It wasn’t supposed to be like this — I wanted to trade yesterday, but I didn’t wake up nearly in time. I was almost as tired this morning as I was yesterday morning, but I didn’t take today off, so I had to get up.
Equities have been steadily pushing up over the last 7 trading days, and futures are strong today (one of the strongest they’ve been in this steady up-move). I’ll keep that in the back of my mind, but I’ll mostly take the baskets at face value.
USD – S – This is down a decent amount already this morning, after a short rally last Friday and yesterday. It’s still steadily pushing down, and this failed at the 20 MA yesterday, so I think this looks like a continuation to the downside — at least to the bottom of the range. I’ll see if I can find any opportunity here
CAD – L/N – This has been choppy, but steadily pushing down for the last couple of months, and had a big spike down at the end of July, but recovered almost all of that the next day. Since then, it continued up, making a new higher high (recently) and a higher low and is up again today. It looks like a reversal pattern to me, but I’m a little hesitant simply because it’s CAD and it’s been whipsawing, but I’ll take a look at individual charts to see if there’s any opportunity
Today’s Pairs
USD/CAD – Short
CAD/JPY – Long
EUR – N – This pushed out of a major resistance level a couple of weeks ago and looked strong for a week or so after that. Since then, though, for the last 8 trading days, this has been basing, but it actually looks more like it’s rolling over back to the downside. It’s up a bit today, and overall I’m still bullish, but I don’t love this pattern right now, so I’ll hold off
GBP – N – This was very strong for 4 days in a row at the end of July — it pushed out of a couple of major resistance levels but stalled at one that was previously support. It’s been basing at that level since then. My outlook has turned overall bullish GBP, but I don’t love where it is. I’ll keep an eye on this throughout the day, though, to see if it starts to push up. If it breaks out of resistance, I might look to take this long — Keep an eye on this — maybe take it long if it begins to spike
JPY – S/N – This is down pretty significantly today, and is sitting right on top of support. Between this level of support there appears to be enough room that the R:R would be worth it, but not so much room that it seems unrealistic. I am worried about a false breakout, but I’ll still see what this looks like on individual charts
AUD – N – I thought this was basing from 7/24 – 8/4, but I looks more like a longer base from 7/21 – today. This pushed out of the base on 8/5 and looked like it had potential, but it pulled right back to within that middle range the next day. Today, it’s sitting right near the top of that “middle range”, and has pulled back a decent amount off of the highs already today. I think I’ll leave this one alone for now
NZD – N – This almost looks ready to turn into a bear. The MA’s are touching, and starting to slope downward, and after breaking out of a downward trend-line, this pulled back under that trend-line steadily and is sitting on top of support. It doesn’t look like it’s going to break out of that support level today, especially as the bottom is still a decent ways away, and that price has rallied off of the lows already today. I’ll keep my eye on this to short during the coming days, but not today
CHF – N – This is fully basing after pushing out of a pretty major support level. It’s quite a ways from the top of the range, but there’s a few resistance levels before that top. I’ll leave this one alone for today, too, I think. The only thing making me question that is the fact that there is some room before the top of the range. I’ll add this in to something I’ll look at if I don’t like anything with the pairs I’m already going to look at