Equity futures are down a bit this morning, but are sitting on the new support level that was resistance (from the new high made on 7/23). It’s not a huge move down, but equities will still probably gap down a bit. It looks like it’ll be a mini risk-off day, which means this correlation probably means nothing. I’ll take the baskets at face value for the most part.
USD – N – In the weekly update video, they said they were going to look to play this on a temporary reversal. It looks like it’s somewhat done that, but it might already be over. Yesterday’s candle was strong, it pushed up almost .7%, but ended up closing near the open (up only .11%). Today’s candle is up a little, but is fully within yesterday’s. I don’t love this to either side right now, so I’ll wait to see what happens
CAD – S/N – I’m overall bearish on CAD, but still a bit apprehensive when it comes to trading it. Over the past month or so, this has been somewhat whipsawing, but trending. It made a big drop at the end of last week (HUGE), but ended up rallying back and taking back everything it lost over Friday and yesterday. Yesterdays’ candle failed at the 20MA, though, and today’s had pushed up some before it dropped, also failing at the 20 MA (both on the daily chart). This has rallied a bit off of the lows, but if it can push back down, this might be a great day to short CAD
EUR – N – After a large rally that took out some major resistance, this has been stalling for the last 3 days (with weird, indecisive candles that have large wicks but very small bodies). I don’t like the way this looks right now, so I’ll leave it alone until it has some conviction behind it
Today’s Pairs
AUD/CAD – Long
CAD/CHF – Short
AUD/JPY – Long
CHF/JPY – Long
GBP – N – This took out 2 major levels of resistance last week when it rallied 2% in a week. Yesterday’s candle pushed up and down, but ultimately closed near the open and today is a strong down-day. This bit spike came after a long, convincing down-trend, so today’s move could either be a reversal back to the downside or simply a pullback before the rally continues. Since it can go either way, I don’t want to trade this in either direction until I have more confirmation
JPY – S/N – JPY has been strange lately, and definitely not following the correlation with equities. This had a decent rally starting a couple of weeks ago, ending mid last week, but then had a huge drop on Friday. Yesterday’s pushed up a decent amount, also made a slightly new low, but ultimately closed near the open. Today’s candle is fully within yesterday’s and price is sitting at the open. This doesn’t look like it has much momentum behind it, though if it picks up and starts to take out the lows from yesterday, this could be a good short. I’ll take a look at individual charts to see if there’s any there there
AUD – L/N – This was mostly basing but steadily pushing up for most of June through July, when it spiked up a couple weeks ago. Since that spike, though, it’s pulled back and has sat basically on top of that area that made up resistance when it was basing previously. Yesterday’s candle pushed lower, but ultimately rallied and closed up a bit, and today’s has already pushed up above yesterday’s highs (though it’s pulled back some). If this can go back up to (and through) the day’s highs, it could be a good long opportunity. I’ll take a look at individual charts to see
NZD – N – This is down for it’s third day in a row and has pushed through the 50MA. It’s now right in the middle of the range it was in from early June to the beginning of July before it broke out and pushed up above it’s trend-line. This is appearing to turn bearish, but I’m not ready to short this here as it’s very close to a major support level. I’ll try to keep my eye on this throughout the day, though, and maybe look to short it if it pushed lower/closer to that support level
CHF – L/N – This was basing for the longest time as well, but ended up rallying and pushing out of that base a couple of weeks ago. Since then, it has been trending upward, but steadily, not quickly. Yesterday’s candle was quite weak, it pushed down back to that support level that was prior resistance and just about to the 20MA, but today’s candle has rallied and looks really strong. It’s up against some resistance from back in April/May, but if it can push through these levels, it could make for a good Long play today. I’ll look at individual charts