I somewhat did my analysis this morning independent of risk sentiment, again. I did look, and things looked positive, but I still wanted to take the baskets at face value and trust the charts. Looking at USD, it was starting to base a bit after being down for the last few days and pushing through some pretty strong support levels. AUD had broken a major support level early last week, pulled back late last week, and appeared (appears?) to just be making a pullback before heading upward again as it bounce off of the 20 MA and prior resistance.
Looking at this chart, it was in a high base on the daily chart and a nice bull pullback on the hourly chart. I put an entry order in, thinking that if equities stayed strong, this would be the perfect risk-on trade.
Entry – 0.7197
Throughout most of the day, price based — more like formed a double top. It wasn’t breaking the neck, convincingly, and I figured if it was reversing, it wouldn’t touch my entry order and I’d be fine.
In the afternoon, after pushing up strong after the FOMC meeting, price touched my entry point triggering me into the trade.
| Entry Order Level |
|---|
| 0.7197 |
| Stop Loss Level |
| 0.716 |
| Target Level |
| 0.7251 |
Exit – 0.7159
Almost as fast as it pushed up and triggered me into the trade, it pushed back down and stopped me out. Maybe I should’ve used a wider stop since it was a news event. I’ll think about that next time.
